Rain chances are in the forecast, but we certainly will not see a washout. For outdoors plans, memorial day events, and BBQs I think the afternoon will prove to be a pretty nice one. Just a slight possibility to dodge a few showers and some intermittent clouds this afternoon. HRRR is showing activity starting around 5 PM in Ocala and moving NW through the evening hours. CAPE values aren’t looking too impressive for t-storms. Other than an isolated storm, I think most of today’s activity will be in the form of brief and spotty showers. QPF stays under .5″ along the nature coast through Tuesday AM. Temperatures will be near 91.
With this in mind, we are lucky this Memorial Day- compared to other states across the Gulf and southern plains. Texas is continuing to see the threat for deadly flooding and severe weather/ tornadic activity elsewhere. SPC is keeping parts of TX, LA, OK, and AR under enhanced/ moderate risks for severe weather today.
Rain will wind down after 7 pm inland and later, around 10 pm, along nature coast. HRRR is showing highest rainfall totals in Levy County for Monday.
Tuesday will be a lot like today with H at surface and aloft to NE. However, I think we could still see some scattered shower activity Tuesday afternoon, and with NWS and guidance all going 40% for Tues. I bumped our pops from 20 to 30%. PM forecaster will have to keep an eye on model trends and decide if we need to bump more. WRF keeps most activity to west in Levy, Gilchrist, Dixie, Lafayette, Suwannee counties mainly 2pm- 10pm. Alachua Co. may escape Tues. rain.
For the rest of the week the ridge remains to N with easterly steering flow dominating. GFS and EURO keep us dry through the end of the work week. Canadian shows some more activity Wed/ thurs. but I agree with our decision to drops pops out until weekend, especially with NWS agreement. I’ve been showing the moisture futuretrack to show that drying trend. GFS PWATS go down to below 1.5″ by Wed. and really drop by SAT AM, and then bump back up to 1.5″ or more Sat afternoon.
Rain chances come back into forecast Sat-Sun as ridge starts to weaken and moisture filters back in.
Looking ahead- GFS relative humidity in upper levels really bumps up next Tues- Thurs. And Jeff mentioned earlier and we’ve been seeing it on models- a TUTT will move N from Bahamas middle of next week, as well.
Hope everyone has a great Memorial Day!
Changes to FE:
Tues pops to 30% from 20
Tues High to 91 from 92
Sun pops 40% from 50%