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Harvey is headed to Texas, and could rapidly intensify before hitting the Lone Star State Friday. In a rare statement issued by the National Hurricane Center Tuesday, forecasters urged residents near the Texas Gulf Coast to prepare for possible storm surge, hurricane force winds, and inland flooding. An official forecast hasn’t been made on the regeneration of (former Tropical Storm) Harvey into a depression or storm, but this was likely to occur by Wednesday morning.

Water Vapor

NHC Atlantic Outlook


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Zelinsky

This content is current now, not at the time of the post. 

Trouble in Texas Times Three

Harvey will be entering an area favorable for development in the western Gulf Wednesday.

The possible rapid intensification and steady forward movement of Harvey will leave little time for residents of southeast Texas to prepare.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could arrive in south Texas as early as Friday morning.  Wind damage, storm surge, and inland flooding could all occur from this storm. This of course depends on the eventual track the system takes and how strong it becomes, which won’t be clear until it reforms and matures over the Bay of Campeche Wednesday. One thing is clear – atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable (even “highly favorable” according to our Tropical Predictor map) for tropical storm formation and intensification.  All reliable forecast models indicate Harvey will quickly become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

Potential impacts from Harvey

At the very least, heavy rain is likely impact a large area of southeast Texas when Harvey comes ashore. Long range forecast models also indicate the system might slow down or even stall over the state, which of course could exasperate the potential flood threat. The forecast situation regarding Harvey will become much clearer Wednesday when the National Hurricane Center is likely to begin issuing watches for portions of the Texas Gulf Coast.

Post Series: Harvey
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