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UPDATE  THU 1 PM:  Hurricane Hunters have found that Harvey is now a hurricane, with sustained winds up to 80 mph. The National Hurricane Center will be issuing an intermediate advisory and forecast update at 2 pm EDT.

KEY MESSAGES
  1. Hurricane Warnings Port Mansfield to Matagorda, TX
  2. Storm Surge Warnings Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass, TX
  3. Life-threatening storm surge and widespread inland flooding expected

It didn’t take long for Harvey to intensify. Now winds gusting over 65 mph, the tropical storm has new life as it moves northwest over the warm waters of the Gulf. Harvey is likely to be a hurricane and batter southeast Texas with hurricane force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and days of heavy rain and inland flooding.

NHC Track
Models
Wind Alerts
Surge Alerts

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120847
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

…MICHAEL BECOMES A STORM-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES…
…ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.0N 73.1W
ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal tropical cyclone warnings and watches are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Michael was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 73.1 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Michael will move away from the
United States today and move rapidly across the open Atlantic Ocean
tonight through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased near 65 mph (100 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today and
tonight as the post-tropical cyclone moves across the Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 44014 recently reported sustained winds
of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the North Carolina coast,
including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, should diminish today.

WIND: Gale winds may continue for a few more hours over portions of
southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva
Peninsula.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain from
New Jersey to Long Island to Cape Cod, and 3 to 5 inches over
Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard through this afternoon. This
rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Elsewhere, flooding and
flash flooding may continue where Michael produced heavy rain very
recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United
States can be found in products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT44 KNHC 120848
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael has
become a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast
of the United States. The initial intensity has been increased to
55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional
increase in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h. After
that time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast
to dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. The revised
intensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from
the Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is 065/25. The cyclone should move very rapidly
toward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion near
the end of the cyclone’s life.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United
States can be found in products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning from
eastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water,
flooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fell
very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

2. Gale-force winds will continue for a few more hours over
portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and
the Delmarva Peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 38.0N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 12/1800Z 40.4N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/0600Z 43.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1800Z 46.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z 47.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0600Z 46.0N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Post Series: Harvey
AIRPRESS LOADED

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