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UPDATE  THU 1 PM:  Hurricane Hunters have found that Harvey is now a hurricane, with sustained winds up to 80 mph. The National Hurricane Center will be issuing an intermediate advisory and forecast update at 2 pm EDT.

KEY MESSAGES
  1. Hurricane Warnings Port Mansfield to Matagorda, TX
  2. Storm Surge Warnings Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass, TX
  3. Life-threatening storm surge and widespread inland flooding expected

It didn’t take long for Harvey to intensify. Now winds gusting over 65 mph, the tropical storm has new life as it moves northwest over the warm waters of the Gulf. Harvey is likely to be a hurricane and batter southeast Texas with hurricane force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and days of heavy rain and inland flooding.

NHC Track
Models
Wind Alerts
Surge Alerts

000
WTNT34 KNHC 091447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017

…RINA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…47.0N 45.5W
ABOUT 360 MI…580 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1480 MI…2385 KM SW OF REYKJAVIC ICELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 40 MPH…65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina
was located near latitude 47.0 North, longitude 45.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65
km/h) and a faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is
expected until dissipation tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before the low dissipates
tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
WTNT44 KNHC 091448
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017

Satellite images and surface data indicate that Rina has become a
post-tropical cyclone. The system is embedded within low stratus
clouds, with nippy air temperatures around 45 deg F about a degree
to the northwest of the center. Interestingly, despite being over
water temperatures around 9 deg C, instability aloft is still
producing some elevated deep convection well northeast of the
center, though this is not indicative of tropical cyclone status.
The initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt, which is the maximum wind
value from a pair of recently received scatterometer passes. The
cyclone should move rather rapidly to the northeast and
east-northeast over the next day before becoming elongated and
dissipating west of Ireland. Little change in strength is
anticipated, consistent with the global models.

This is the last advisory on Rina. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and available on the Web at
http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

Hopefully Rina will be the finale of the extremely active 2017
Atlantic hurricane season. However that might be wishful thinking
since, of the top 10 most active hurricane seasons before this year,
seven of them still had another tropical storm after today’s date.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 47.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/0000Z 51.0N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Post Series: Harvey
Florida Storms
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