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LATEST ON THE STORM
  1. Harvey has stalled, could drift back offshore
  2. Catastrophic flooding possible next five days
  3. Tornado threat continues in SE TX and SW LA

The first major hurricane to hit the U.S. in nearly 12 years just won’t go away. In fact, the legacy of Hurricane Harvey is likely to be what transpires in the next three or four days. Rainfall will be measured in feet across hundreds of square miles in the Lone Star State as the former Category 4 storm painfully drifts back toward the coast. There’s even a chance of a second landfall if Tropical Storm Harvey emerges back out over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

The flooding has just begun

Additional rainfall forecast for much of SE Texas.

Harvey has only moved about 150 miles inland, and its circulation will continually pull tropical moisture in off the Gulf. Rain will likely continue for days, almost uninterrupted in some spots, across much of southeast Texas. The steadiest rain is likely to fall north and east of the Harvey’s center, which is expected to slowly drift back to the southeast, ironically very close to where the storm made landfall. The heaviest rainfall rates, however, will occur in the storm’s feeder bands that will be nearly stationary across the greater Houston metro area through Monday.

As of Saturday evening, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center reported that 10 to 15 inches of rain had already fallen in Aransas and Refugio Counties north of Corpus Christi, and also in Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties southwest of Houston. Six to ten inches was commonly reported across the Houston metro.  Additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are likely across all of the aforementioned areas, with locally higher amounts up to 25 inches possible.

This amount of water attempting to flow through creeks and streams that are already full or backed up from Harvey’s storm surge is likely to lead to unprecedented and catastrophic flooding in parts of southeast Texas.

In addition to the heavy rain and flooding, the risk for tornadoes will continue across the same areas of southeast Texas. Rain squalls will occasionally develop enough instability and rotation to prompt tornado warnings, and the risk of quick-hitting spin-ups will also continue through Monday.

HOW YOU CAN HELP HARVEY VICTIMS

To donate, text REDCROSS to 90999 to give $10 to American Red Cross Disaster Relief, which helps people affected by disasters such as hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, wildfires and tornadoes.

Charges will appear on your wireless bill, or be deducted from your prepaid balance. All purchases must be authorized by account holder. Must be 18 years of age or have parental permission to participate. Message and Data Rates May Apply. Text STOP to 90999 to STOPText HELP to 90999 for HELP. Full Terms and Privacy Policy: hmgf.org/t.

To donate by phone or to get assistance with your donation to victims of Hurricane Harvey, please contact the American Red Cross at 1-800-HELP NOW (1-800-435-7669).

NHC Track
Alerts
Models
GOES-16

000
WTNT34 KNHC 091447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017

…RINA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…47.0N 45.5W
ABOUT 360 MI…580 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1480 MI…2385 KM SW OF REYKJAVIC ICELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 40 MPH…65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina
was located near latitude 47.0 North, longitude 45.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65
km/h) and a faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is
expected until dissipation tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before the low dissipates
tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
WTNT44 KNHC 091448
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017

Satellite images and surface data indicate that Rina has become a
post-tropical cyclone. The system is embedded within low stratus
clouds, with nippy air temperatures around 45 deg F about a degree
to the northwest of the center. Interestingly, despite being over
water temperatures around 9 deg C, instability aloft is still
producing some elevated deep convection well northeast of the
center, though this is not indicative of tropical cyclone status.
The initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt, which is the maximum wind
value from a pair of recently received scatterometer passes. The
cyclone should move rather rapidly to the northeast and
east-northeast over the next day before becoming elongated and
dissipating west of Ireland. Little change in strength is
anticipated, consistent with the global models.

This is the last advisory on Rina. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and available on the Web at
http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

Hopefully Rina will be the finale of the extremely active 2017
Atlantic hurricane season. However that might be wishful thinking
since, of the top 10 most active hurricane seasons before this year,
seven of them still had another tropical storm after today’s date.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 47.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/0000Z 51.0N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Where Harvey goes from here

It is almost certain that Tropical Storm Harvey will slowly drift back toward the central Texas coast through Monday. Where it goes thereafter is not as clear. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps Harvey inland, but confidence was low in whether or not the cyclone’s center would drift back over the water. After Monday, the storm (or remnants thereof) are likely to begin moving north toward southeast Texas. It is entirely possible that Harvey will still be a tropical depression or storm in five days.

Post Series: Harvey
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