Jose was once a powerful Category 4 hurricane aimed right at the same Caribbean islands devastated by Irma. This is likely why it spurred a large amount of unwarranted social media attention this week.  Thankfully, Jose had other plans and decided to go on a more northerly route. In fact, it became somewhat “lost at sea” and stalled.

NHC Track
Models
Waves
Satellite

000
WTNT32 KNHC 160251
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

…OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…49.2N 13.3W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH…70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…969 MB…28.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph
(70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday
and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western
Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000

WTNT42 KNHC 160252

TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 28

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017

1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

Within just the past six hours, the last bit of deep convection

near Ophelia’s center has been sheared off well to the north, and

the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure.

Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an

attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a

cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal. The

powerful cyclone continues to produce hurricane-force winds, with

recent ASCAT data showing wind vectors as high as 70 kt to the east

of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains

75 kt to account for undersampling. The occluded low is forecast to

gradually fill and weaken during the next couple of days, and it is

likely to dissipate near the western coast of Norway by 48 hours.

Despite the expected weakening, the post-tropical cyclone is still

likely to bring hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, to

portions of western Ireland on Monday.

Ophelia has accelerated and retrograded slightly during the past

6-12 hours during the occlusion process, and the long-term motion

estimate is northward, or 010/38 kt. Now that occlusion is

complete, the post-tropical cyclone should resume a north-

northeastward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, within

the next 12 hours. That heading should continue for the ensuing day

or two, bringing the center of the cyclone near the western coast of

Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

The dynamical track models remain in good agreement on this

scenario, and the updated NHC forecast is not too different from

the previous one.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center

now that Ophelia has become post-tropical. Local forecasts,

warnings, and other communications regarding the post-tropical

cyclone that are pertinent to Ireland and the United Kingdom will

continue to be available from Met Eireann and the UK Met Office.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone with

hurricane-force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United

Kingdom Monday and Monday night. Strong winds and heavy rain are

likely in portions of these areas, along with dangerous marine

conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location

of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should

refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the

United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia

since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of

the NHC forecast cone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 49.2N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

12H 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

24H 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

36H 17/1200Z 61.9N 0.1W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 18/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Berg

Jose might come close to New England

Dry air and strong northerly winds have not only put a halt to the forward motion of Jose, the unfavorable conditions have resulted in significant weakening of the season’s third Major Hurricane.  Conditions are projected to become more favorable for re-strengthening in the coming days and a motion to the northwest is likely to resume on Friday. The official forecast from the NHC calls for Jose to miss the mainland U.S., but possibly come close enough to produce tropical storm force winds along the coast from Long Island to Cape Cod. At the very least, adverse conditions are likely for beach-goers and water enthusiasts along the beaches of the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend, stretching into New England through much of next week.

Meteorologist Jeff Huffman

Meteorologist Jeff Huffman is no stranger to just about every type of weather. Growing up in Missouri, he developed a passion for understanding thunderstorms, tornadoes, and winter storms. Several personal experiences at a young age put him dangerously close to these incredible forces of nature. Upon graduating from the University of Missouri, he continued tracking the extreme weather for 8 years as the Morning Meteorologist for the ABC and FOX22 affiliates in Mid-Missouri. In 2011, he couldn't resist the challenge to head south and take on tracking tropical storms. He accepted a position with the University of Florida's Multimedia Properties as the Chief Meteorologist. He first developed a 24-hour weather, news, and sports channel whereby students can gain real-world experience on their journey to becoming broadcast meteorologists. In 2013, Jeff worked with stations all over the state to build the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, a collaborative effort by all public media in the state to keep their audiences informed of hazardous tropical weather. In his free time, Jeff enjoys playing tennis, working out, exploring nature, and occasionally sleeping.