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Jose was once a powerful Category 4 hurricane aimed right at the same Caribbean islands devastated by Irma. This is likely why it spurred a large amount of unwarranted social media attention this week.  Thankfully, Jose had other plans and decided to go on a more northerly route. In fact, it became somewhat “lost at sea” and stalled.

NHC Track
Models
Waves
Satellite

832
WTNT32 KNHC 290241
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Kirk Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

…KIRK BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 190 MI…310 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Kirk were located near
latitude 15.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h), and the wave is
expected to continue moving westward across the Caribbean Sea
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the east of the wave axis.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: The remnants of Kirk are expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches across St.
Croix and eastern Puerto Rico overnight through Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg

900

WTNT42 KNHC 290242

TCDAT2

Remnants Of Kirk Discussion Number 21

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018

1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Even though there still appears to be a circulation center in

satellite imagery, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane was

unable to find westerly winds that would support a closed

circulation. Therefore, Kirk has degenerated into an open wave,

and this will be the last advisory. The SFMR on the plane still

measured winds around 35 kt in the convection to the east of the

wave axis, and that will remain the initial intensity.

The wave will continue moving westward across the Caribbean Sea

during the next few days, with its winds gradually decreasing due

to continued westerly shear. Heavy rains are still possible over

portions of eastern Puerto Rico and St. Croix during the next day

or two while Kirk’s remnants pass to the south.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas

Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS

header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web

at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 15.1N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…REMNANTS

12H 29/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Berg

Jose might come close to New England

Dry air and strong northerly winds have not only put a halt to the forward motion of Jose, the unfavorable conditions have resulted in significant weakening of the season’s third Major Hurricane.  Conditions are projected to become more favorable for re-strengthening in the coming days and a motion to the northwest is likely to resume on Friday. The official forecast from the NHC calls for Jose to miss the mainland U.S., but possibly come close enough to produce tropical storm force winds along the coast from Long Island to Cape Cod. At the very least, adverse conditions are likely for beach-goers and water enthusiasts along the beaches of the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend, stretching into New England through much of next week.

AIRPRESS LOADED

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