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THREE TAKEAWAYS
  1. NHC says “low chance” of becoming tropical
  2. Regardless, heavy rain & gusty winds for South Florida
  3. Nor’easter conditions likely in northeast Florida

There is no hurricane heading to Florida this weekend.  In fact, whether this system even becomes a named tropical storm is in question. However, an area of low pressure that might eventually take on tropical characteristics is expected to develop by Saturday just east of Florida. Regardless of development, it could bring heavy rain, gusty winds and unsettled waters to much of south and central Florida.

All reliable forecast data suggests the low pressure system will develop late Friday or early Saturday near the Straits of Florida or just east of Miami. A large area of rain and embedded thunderstorms will also likely develop quickly across much of South Florida during the day Saturday.  The disturbance is then expected to move north or northeast along or just east of Florida’s Atlantic coast through Sunday. Thereafter, where it goes and how strong it becomes is highly uncertain.

Regardless of future possible tropical development, periods of rain and gusty winds will spread up the east side of Florida over the weekend. The tight pressure gradient between this system and a large area of higher pressure to the north will also lead to a strong onshore flow for several days. Beach erosion, coastal flooding, rough surf and rip currents will all be possible at area beaches and along inter-coastal waterways through early next week.

This content is current now, not at the time of the post. 
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