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THREE TAKEAWAYS
  1. Tropical storm development possible
  2. Regardless, coastal hazards expected
  3. Rough surf, flooding may linger for days

It isn’t clear yet if the weather system about to affect parts of Florida will acquire tropical characteristics and be officially named.

Whether it gets a name (Nate) or not really doesn’t matter, as the impacts will be the same.”, says Meteorologist Al Sandrik from the National Weather Service Jacksonville.

The impacts Al speaks of include wind gusts occasionally to 40 mph, high surf of 7 to 10 feet in many oceanfront areas, a high risk of rip currents, and coastal flooding from an astronomical and extra-tropical rise in the water levels of 2 to 3 feet above normal. In addition to the coastal impacts, periods of heavy rain may also develop near the coast and spread inland late Saturday through early Monday.

SUGGESTED ACTIONS

Residents and business owners in flood prone areas, especially at times of high tide, should prepare for minor to moderate flooding. Some marine debris may be washed back ashore from Hurricane Irma, and loose items from the storm may also be tossed around. Mariners are encouraged to avoid operating small vessels over open waters where waves could be too large for safe navigation. Inexperienced swimmers and surfers should also avoid the unsafe waters, especially without a lifeguard on duty.

Outlook
Models
Water Vapor

NHC Atlantic Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Andrea, located about 300 hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN

This content is current now, not at the time of the post. 

Chances of tropical development

The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring the disturbance that will become responsible for the unsettled weather, advising Thursday that it had a “medium chance” of developing into a tropical cyclone on Saturday as it moved up along the east coast of Florida. On Sunday, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to move off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states, preventing the tropical entity from moving any further north than offshore of the Florida-Georgia border. In fact, upper-level conditions are likely to become less favorable for continued tropical development early next week, and the area of low pressure is most likely to dissipate slowly and drift west across the state.

The where and when

Locations most at risk to the (pseudo) tropical storm conditions are in extreme northeast Florida, in particular near the Jacksonville metro area and points south to about Saint Augustine. The heaviest rain is most likely to fall a little south of these areas, generally across much of east-central Florida from Orlando to Daytona Beach. While the heavy rain may subside by early next week, the adverse coastal conditions may linger for several days due to a persistent onshore flow of wind out of the east or northeast.

While significant tropical development is not expected, a system such as this can still cause damage to property and be a hazard to life. To stay informed of the latest information related to this event and monitor the tropics for possible future developments, the free mobile app Florida Storms can be a resource. It’s offered as a service of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network and available in both the iOS and Google Play stores today.

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