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For the first time since August 23, there were no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin as of Saturday.

This may not last long, though. Long range forecast data suggests clusters of convection will develop in the western Caribbean this week, eventually leading to a broad area of low pressure developing. From this low, a tropical storm may form by Friday or Saturday.

It would be climatologically on point if the next named storm develops in this region of the world. When the calendar is flipped from September to October, there is usually a shift in the origin of tropical cyclones.  The six maps in the gallery below show where storms typically form in 10-day blocks.

The evolving weather pattern would also support development of a tropical system in the general vicinity of the Yucatan Channel. Water temperatures are still sufficiently warm, upper air conditions reasonably favorable, and several hemispheric pressure oscillations in sync to yield the formation of a tropical entity. However, publishing a forecast for when it develops, where it travels, and how strong it becomes would not be credible at the time.


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