For the first time since August 23, there were no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin as of Saturday.

This may not last long, though. Long range forecast data suggests clusters of convection will develop in the western Caribbean this week, eventually leading to a broad area of low pressure developing. From this low, a tropical storm may form by Friday or Saturday.

It would be climatologically on point if the next named storm develops in this region of the world. When the calendar is flipped from September to October, there is usually a shift in the origin of tropical cyclones.  The six maps in the gallery below show where storms typically form in 10-day blocks.

Sep 1 10 Sm
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Sep_11_20_sm
Sep_21_30_sm
Oct_1_10_sm
Oct_11_20_sm
Oct_21_31_sm

The evolving weather pattern would also support development of a tropical system in the general vicinity of the Yucatan Channel. Water temperatures are still sufficiently warm, upper air conditions reasonably favorable, and several hemispheric pressure oscillations in sync to yield the formation of a tropical entity. However, publishing a forecast for when it develops, where it travels, and how strong it becomes would not be credible at the time.

Meteorologist Jeff Huffman

Meteorologist Jeff Huffman is no stranger to just about every type of weather. Growing up in Missouri, he developed a passion for understanding thunderstorms, tornadoes, and winter storms. Several personal experiences at a young age put him dangerously close to these incredible forces of nature. Upon graduating from the University of Missouri, he continued tracking the extreme weather for 8 years as the Morning Meteorologist for the ABC and FOX22 affiliates in Mid-Missouri. In 2011, he couldn't resist the challenge to head south and take on tracking tropical storms. He accepted a position with the University of Florida's Multimedia Properties as the Chief Meteorologist. He first developed a 24-hour weather, news, and sports channel whereby students can gain real-world experience on their journey to becoming broadcast meteorologists. In 2013, Jeff worked with stations all over the state to build the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, a collaborative effort by all public media in the state to keep their audiences informed of hazardous tropical weather. In his free time, Jeff enjoys playing tennis, working out, exploring nature, and occasionally sleeping.