skip to Main Content

A new Tropical Depression has formed it the western Caribbean and is forecast to become a hurricane before approaching the Florida Panhandle this weekend. 

SUGGESTION ACTION

At this stage in the tropical cyclone’s evolution, and especially considering there is still plenty of time to take action on a hurricane plan, residents in the potential path of TD16 (Louisiana to Florida) should take steps to ensure their hurricane plans are completed in the next couple of days and heed any advice from local officials as the situation unfolds.

NHC Track
Models
Shear
Satellite

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

…CENTER OF ALBERTO MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.3N 86.8W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM W OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression
Alberto was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 86.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph
(20 km/h). A faster northward to north-northwestward motion is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto will move over central and northern Alabama
through this morning. The system is forecast to move over the
Tennessee Valley later today and into the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast as Alberto moves farther inland, and
the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday
evening. The Montgomery airport recently reported a wind gust of 43
mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain from
Alabama northward into the southern Great Lakes and from north
Florida into the southern Appalachians through Thursday. Isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are possible over the Florida
Panhandle and Alabama. These rains may produce flooding and flash
flooding.

WIND: A few gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across
portions of central and northern Alabama this morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today from southern Kentucky
to parts of Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the
eastern and northern Gulf Coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290843
TCDAT1

Subtropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Radar and surface observations indicate that Alberto is moving
north-northwestward at about 10 kt across central Alabama, and the
associated convective pattern remains well organized in the radar
data. During the past few hours, Montgomery has reported sustained
winds near 25 kt with gusts around 35 kt, so the initial intensity
is set to 25 kt. Alberto will continue to weaken as it moves over
land during the next few days, and the system should degenerate into
a remnant low in 24 h or less. The low is expected to dissipate
completely by 96 h, and some of the dynamical guidance suggests
this could occur earlier.

Alberto or its remnants should accelerate north-northwestward to
northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the
east and southeast over the next couple of days. After that, the
system should turn toward the north-northeast as it recurves into
the mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast is similar to
the previous forecast and is again close to the dynamical model
consensus TVCN near the center of the tightly clustered guidance.

This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on
Alberto. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding
across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia
overnight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and Tennessee today.

2. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
today.

3. Future advisories on Alberto will be issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 32.3N 86.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
12H 29/1800Z 34.1N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 30/0600Z 36.8N 87.7W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 39.8N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 43.1N 85.4W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 49.5N 79.5W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen Wednesday morning, and an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon. All interests from Louisiana to Florida should closely monitor this developing situation.

The usual uncertainty

Any tropical system that is in the early stages of development presents an array of forecast challenges, such as the rate of intensification, the eventual track, or the severity and reach of potential impacts. All of these are still very unknown with Tropical Depression Sixteen.

 

As of Wednesday morning, the official forecast was for TD16 to intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday evening and make a first landfall in Nicaragua early Thursday morning. The storm is then forecast to move north, back out over the warm water of the western Caribbean, and resume intensification. Soon-to-be Tropical Storm Nate is likely to enter the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday morning and continue steady intensification until landfall somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Cedar Key, Florida.

The average track error at time of landfall, which is day four in this case, is nearly 150 miles to either side of an official forecast. Potential impacts, whether it be storm surge or wind, can extend dozens – if not hundreds – of miles from the center of a tropical cyclone and are not represented by the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center.

Post Series: Nate
Back To Top