A new Tropical Depression has formed it the western Caribbean and is forecast to become a hurricane before approaching the Florida Panhandle this weekend. 

SUGGESTION ACTION

At this stage in the tropical cyclone’s evolution, and especially considering there is still plenty of time to take action on a hurricane plan, residents in the potential path of TD16 (Louisiana to Florida) should take steps to ensure their hurricane plans are completed in the next couple of days and heed any advice from local officials as the situation unfolds.

NHC Track
Models
Shear
Satellite

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

…HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION…
…FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…33.1N 87.3W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nate
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39
km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, Nate’s center will continue to move inland across the Deep
South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through
Monday.

Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is predicted during the next couple of days, but Nate
is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected over the
the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Alabama and Georgia through
this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the
northern Gulf coast, but should gradually subside this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible today, mainly from
the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and
northern Georgia into the western Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
WTNT41 KNHC 081450
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Nate Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

The center of Nate continues to move quickly north-northeastward
over central Alabama. Moderate westerly shear has caused most of
the deep convection and heavy rainfall to be displaced to the east
and northeast of the center, and surface observations show that
Nate has continued to rapidly weaken. Wind gusts to tropical-storm
strength are still occurring over portions of Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle, but there are no recent reports of sustained
tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, Nate is now a 30-kt
tropical depression. Nate is expected to become a remnant low on
Monday, and extratropical by Tuesday before it is absorbed by
frontal system. The intensity foreast keeps the wind speed around
30 kt during the next 48 hours, since winds are expected to increase
along the mid-Atlantic coast and southern New England coast on
Monday when the post-tropical low approaches that area.

Nate should continue to move quickly north-northeastward to
northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies during the
next 24 to 36 hours. The cyclone is forecast to turn
east-northeastward by Tuesday before it merges with the frontal
system.

This is the last NHC advisory on Nate. Heavy rainfall associated
with Nate is expected to spread over the Tennessee Valley, the
southern and central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley during the
next day or so. Future information on Nate system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
continue as long as Nate poses a flooding threat to the U.S.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

2. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

3. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected over portions of
the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia through this afternoon.

4. Persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated along
portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. See products
issues by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for
additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 33.1N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
12H 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z…ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Brown

The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen Wednesday morning, and an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon. All interests from Louisiana to Florida should closely monitor this developing situation.

The usual uncertainty

Any tropical system that is in the early stages of development presents an array of forecast challenges, such as the rate of intensification, the eventual track, or the severity and reach of potential impacts. All of these are still very unknown with Tropical Depression Sixteen.

 

As of Wednesday morning, the official forecast was for TD16 to intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday evening and make a first landfall in Nicaragua early Thursday morning. The storm is then forecast to move north, back out over the warm water of the western Caribbean, and resume intensification. Soon-to-be Tropical Storm Nate is likely to enter the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday morning and continue steady intensification until landfall somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Cedar Key, Florida.

The average track error at time of landfall, which is day four in this case, is nearly 150 miles to either side of an official forecast. Potential impacts, whether it be storm surge or wind, can extend dozens – if not hundreds – of miles from the center of a tropical cyclone and are not represented by the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center.

Meteorologist Jeff Huffman

Meteorologist Jeff Huffman is no stranger to just about every type of weather. Growing up in Missouri, he developed a passion for understanding thunderstorms, tornadoes, and winter storms. Several personal experiences at a young age put him dangerously close to these incredible forces of nature. Upon graduating from the University of Missouri, he continued tracking the extreme weather for 8 years as the Morning Meteorologist for the ABC and FOX22 affiliates in Mid-Missouri. In 2011, he couldn't resist the challenge to head south and take on tracking tropical storms. He accepted a position with the University of Florida's Multimedia Properties as the Chief Meteorologist. He first developed a 24-hour weather, news, and sports channel whereby students can gain real-world experience on their journey to becoming broadcast meteorologists. In 2013, Jeff worked with stations all over the state to build the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, a collaborative effort by all public media in the state to keep their audiences informed of hazardous tropical weather. In his free time, Jeff enjoys playing tennis, working out, exploring nature, and occasionally sleeping.

Post Series: Nate