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The National Hurricane Center continues to express “lower-than-normal confidence” in the forecast for Tropical Storm Nate and the potential impacts to the United States.

Since the first advisory was issued Wednesday, the track forecast has shifted roughly 200 miles to the west. At face value, this certainly places less of Florida in the path of potential direct hazards from the tropical storm. However, considering the high amount of uncertainty that still exists in Nate’s track and strength, all Floridians in hurricane prone areas along the Gulf Coast from Pensacola to Panama City should stay vigilant and stay informed.

NHC Track
Models
Shear
Satellite

000
WTNT31 KNHC 312034
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

…OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE…
…HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…39.3N 49.6W
ABOUT 540 MI…870 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 975 MI…1570 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 35 MPH…56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar
was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
35 mph (56 km/h), and a motion toward the northeast with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next two to three
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next
several days, Oscar is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical
cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Oscar that are affecting Bermuda will
subside tonight. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Oscar. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT41 KNHC 312034
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Oscar has
become a hurricane-force extratropical low, as the central
convection has all but dissipated and frontal-band-type cloud
features have become better defined. The scatterometer data show
hurricane-force winds about 70 n mi south of the center, and that
the overall wind field has expanded considerably since the previous
overpass. The cyclone is expected to maintain an intensity of 60-65
kt for the next 48 h, then gradually weaken as the baroclinic energy
wanes, with dissipation occurring between 96-120 h over the far
northeastern Atlantic.

The initial motion is now 030/30 kt. Oscar is now well embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies, and for the next 3-4 days it should
move generally northeastward with a gradual decrease in forward
speed.

Much of the current forecast, especially the intensity and the
size, is based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last advisory on Oscar from the National Hurricane
Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 39.3N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Land interactions through Friday

Nate become the season’s 14th named storm Thursday as it approached the coast of Nicaragua with maximum winds around 40 mph. The forecast over the next 36 hours includes a trip over Nicaragua, some time back over the warm waters of the western Caribbean, then potentially a short amount of time over across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. The land-water interactions will make it difficult for Nate to strengthen quickly, but it will likely emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico a little stronger than it is now.

Sweeps through the Gulf Saturday

As Tropical Storm Nate moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which would argue for strengthening, atmospheric conditions are forecast to become marginally favorable for cyclone intensification with time. Increasing winds aloft could counter the warm waters to allow for only modest intensification before landfall along the Central Gulf Coast States. The official forecast is for Nate to be a Category 1 hurricane and make landfall somewhere between central Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

Post Series: Nate
AIRPRESS LOADED

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