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Nate is now steadily intensifying and has become the ninth hurricane of the 2017 season. The former tropical storm is racing to the north and is expected to make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast before dawn Sunday.

NHC Track
Models
Shear
Satellite
LATEST TRENDS ON NATE
  1. Steady strengthening expected to continue until landfall
  2. Model data suggesting slight eastward shift
  3. Fast forward speed leaves less time to prepare (or change your mind)

Hurricane Warning from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border, including Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

Tropical Storm Warning from west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana…and from east of the Alabama-Florida line to Destin, Florida.

Tropical Storm Watch from east of the Okaloosa-Walton county line to Indian Pass, Florida…and from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana

Storm Surge Warning for coastal areas from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border, and for the northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain.

Storm Surge Watch for coastal areas east of the Alabama-Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida.

Flash Flood Watch for portions of Alabama, northwest Florida, and southeast
Mississippi.

We answered a lot of questions on the fate of Nate during our Facebook Live late Friday evening.

8 pm Advisory Coming in on Tropical Storm Nate

Nate is close to becoming a hurricane. Storm Surge WARNING issued for Pensacola. We have time to answer a lot of questions…fire away!

Posted by Florida Storms on Friday, October 6, 2017

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

…CENTER OF ALBERTO MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.3N 86.8W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM W OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression
Alberto was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 86.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph
(20 km/h). A faster northward to north-northwestward motion is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto will move over central and northern Alabama
through this morning. The system is forecast to move over the
Tennessee Valley later today and into the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast as Alberto moves farther inland, and
the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday
evening. The Montgomery airport recently reported a wind gust of 43
mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain from
Alabama northward into the southern Great Lakes and from north
Florida into the southern Appalachians through Thursday. Isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are possible over the Florida
Panhandle and Alabama. These rains may produce flooding and flash
flooding.

WIND: A few gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across
portions of central and northern Alabama this morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today from southern Kentucky
to parts of Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the
eastern and northern Gulf Coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290843
TCDAT1

Subtropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Radar and surface observations indicate that Alberto is moving
north-northwestward at about 10 kt across central Alabama, and the
associated convective pattern remains well organized in the radar
data. During the past few hours, Montgomery has reported sustained
winds near 25 kt with gusts around 35 kt, so the initial intensity
is set to 25 kt. Alberto will continue to weaken as it moves over
land during the next few days, and the system should degenerate into
a remnant low in 24 h or less. The low is expected to dissipate
completely by 96 h, and some of the dynamical guidance suggests
this could occur earlier.

Alberto or its remnants should accelerate north-northwestward to
northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the
east and southeast over the next couple of days. After that, the
system should turn toward the north-northeast as it recurves into
the mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast is similar to
the previous forecast and is again close to the dynamical model
consensus TVCN near the center of the tightly clustered guidance.

This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on
Alberto. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding
across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia
overnight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and Tennessee today.

2. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
today.

3. Future advisories on Alberto will be issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 32.3N 86.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
12H 29/1800Z 34.1N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 30/0600Z 36.8N 87.7W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 39.8N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 43.1N 85.4W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 49.5N 79.5W 15 KT 15 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Potential hazards from Nate

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