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UPDATE SATURDAY 5 PM:  Tropical Depression Eighteen has strengthened to become the 16th named storm of the season. Tropical Storm Philippe is also now moving north and expected to move across the Florida Keys and extreme South Florida overnight.

KEY MESSAGES
  1. Forecast track has shifted west to include more of South Florida, but strongest winds will stay just offshore.
  2. Heavy rain is primary hazard, with localized flooding possible.
  3. Strongest rain bands could produce 30 to 40 mph wind gusts and an isolated risk of a tornado.
NHC Track
Alerts
Rain
Satellite
[station_section section=”twitterlist-weather”]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 132035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Advisory Number 70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

…LONG-LIVED LESLIE PREPARING TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF PORTUGAL AS A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE…
…DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…40.5N 9.5W
ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM SSW OF PORTO PORTUGAL
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM N OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH…56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the
State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie
was located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 9.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours with a decrease in forward speed. On this track, the center of
Leslie will be near the west-central coast of Portugal in a few
hours, and move inland over portions of central and northern
Portugal tonight, and across northwestern and northern Spain Sunday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast after Leslie moves inland over the
Iberian peninsula, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate by
Sunday afternoon or evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. Lisbon, Portugal recently reported a wind gust to
40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force
to portions of Portugal tonight, and gale-force winds to portions of
western amd northern Spain later tonight through early Sunday.
Please see products from your local meteorological service for more
information on this hazard.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 5 inches
(125 mm) across portions of Portugal and Spain this weekend. This
rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect the
Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through the weekend,
and will begin to affect the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and
Morocco today and continuing into Sunday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Leslie.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
WTNT43 KNHC 132036
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number 70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

After a total of 70 advisories, long-lived Leslie has become
post-tropical just west of the coast of Portugal, finally succumbing
to the combination of cool waters, strong vertical wind shear, and
interaction with an approaching cold front. The air mass ahead of
the cyclone has moistened up in the low levels with Faro, Portugal,
reporting a dewpoint of 70F/21C, but the dewpoints across central
and northern Portugal ahead of Leslie are only in the low-60F range,
which is not indicative of a tropical air mass. Thus, the cyclone is
now a powerful post-tropical low pressure system that even has a
partial eye noted in the most recent 2000Z Portuguese composite
radar imagery. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and
Leslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over
or just north of Spain by late Sunday.

Leslie is moving quickly toward the northeast or 050/30 kt.
Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie should continue in a fast northeastward
direction for the next 12-18 hours, making landfall near or just
south of Porto, Portugal by 14/0000Z. This forecast motion is
consistent with the previous advisory and the latest track model
guidance.

The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
products. This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory
on this system.

Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal later tonight as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
northwestern and northern Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 40.5N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
12H 14/0600Z 43.0N 4.9W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL INLAND
24H 14/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Original story posted early Saturday…

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of South Florida, including the Miami metro area and from Craig Key to Golden Beach. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect the offshore waters from Marathon to West Palm. Tropical Storm force winds are possible in the watch area in the next 24 hours, but more likely in the warned areas over water.

The latest advisory issued comes as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was upgraded to a Tropical Depression. Maximum sustained winds were at 35 mph, and Tropical Depression Eighteen was moving to the north-northeast at 22 mph.  Wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible in the heavier rain bands, especially in areas under a Tropical Storm Watch.

Bands of heavy rain will spread from the Florida Keys northward into much of South Florida by Saturday night. Two to four inches of rain are possible in extreme southeast Florida, with one to three inches of rain possible near and south of a line extending from Fort Myers to Melbourne.  A Flood Watch has been issued for all counties along the Treasure Coast from Fort Lauderdale  to Vero Beach.

There is also a risk for isolated tornadoes in the Florida Keys, Miami Dade and Broward counties through Sunday morning. The system will race away from the state quickly Sunday and merge with a cold front to bring stormy weather to much of the Northeast U.S.

AIRPRESS LOADED

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