AXNT20 KNHC 121805
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF
NE-to-E GALE-FORCE WINDS are forecast, tonight, along the coast
of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 70W and 76W, and including in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Expect sea heights to range from 9 feet to
13 feet, in the Caribbean Sea but not in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Expect the GALE-FORCE wind conditions to end around sunrise on
Monday, slowing down to less than gale-force. Please read the
High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the WMO/AFOS headers,
as FZNT02 KNHC/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W from 19N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between land and 20W. It is
easily possible that some of this precipitation also is related
to the monsoon trough.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W from 21N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 07N to 20N
between 33W and 44W. It is easily possible that some of this
precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W from 21N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 07N to 11N between 49W and 61W. It is
easily possible that some of this precipitation also is
related to the monsoon trough.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 21N
southward, from the Mona Passage to NW Venezuela. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the areas that are
from 18N to 26N between 68W and 70W, including in eastern sections
of the Dominican Republic. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N in the Caribbean Sea to 27N in
the Atlantic Ocean between 64W and 73W.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of the
border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, to 07N25W and
09N40W. The ITCZ is along 09N40W 08N43W 06N52W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 04N to
10N between 20W and 33W. Other broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere, away from the
precipitation that is attributed to the tropical waves, from 10N
southward from 40W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO…
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N98W, along
the coast of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the coastal plains/the coastal waters of Mexico
from 20N to 24N between 96W and 100W.
A separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a weak
cyclonic circulation center/an inverted trough, spans the Gulf of
Mexico from 23N southward from the Yucatan Channel westward. Upper
level NE wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
eastward. Some of the NE wind flow is related to a Bahamas upper
level trough/cyclonic circulation center. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers cover the Gulf
of Mexico from 90W eastward.
A surface ridge passes across the NW Bahamas and Lake Okeechobee,
to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 26N90W, near the
center of the Gulf of Mexico.
A nocturnal trough, moving off the Yucatan Peninsula, will induce
a surge of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche
each night. A surface ridge will prevail elsewhere across the
area. The ridge will support moderate to locally fresh SE winds
in the west central and NW Gulf during most of the forecast
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the GALE-FORCE winds forecast.
An upper level trough continues from the Bahamas into the entire
western section of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea from the Windward Passage westward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the west of
the line from the Windward Passage to the northern coast of Panama
that is along 80W.
The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond
southern Costa Rica. Other rainshowers are possible also from 12N
southward from 76W westward.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are moving into the easternmost part of the Caribbean Sea, from
14N to 20N between 60W and 64W.
High pressure, that is to the north of the area, will support
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
Tuesday. It is possible that sustained wind speeds may reach gale
force along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
tonight and Monday morning. The wind speeds and thte sea heights
in the Caribbean Sea will subside during the middle of the week,
as the surface ridge that is in the western Atlantic Ocean weakens
An upper level inverted trough is on top of the Bahamas. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 70W
westward. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong rainshowers cover the Bahamas and surrounding waters from
23N to 28N between 77W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 70W westward.
A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N33W, to 30N40W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 30N58W, to the NW Bahamas, and eventually, across Lake
Okeechobee and south Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico.
The current surface ridge will remain in place during the next
several days. The ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally
strong winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola, and in the
approaches to the Windward Passage, during the evening and
nighttime hours. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow will
continue, elsewhere, N of 23N, and mainly moderate easterly wind
flow will prevail S of 23N.
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