1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight. Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and Georgia coast, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States into Friday.

1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through tonight. Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through Friday.

WHAT'S NEW:

None

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Lantana to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
- Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
- Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
- Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
- Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Savannah River...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals of 6 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is moving very slowly toward the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Sustained winds of 56 mph (91 km/h) with a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA Coastal Marine observing site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island. A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently report at Juno Beach Pier, Florida.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches).

Satellite and radar imagery show that Dorian is moving very slowly over Grand Bahama Island this morning. The hurricane remains quite symmetric and still exhibits a very well-defined eye, but there is somewhat less evidence of concentric eyewalls in Bahamas radar imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS, SAB, and TAFB are slightly lower this morning, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 135 kt. As Dorian moves very slowly during the next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening. After that time, the hurricane is expected to experience a gradual increase in southwesterly shear, which should lead to a slow decrease in wind speed. However, Dorian is forecast to remain a very powerful hurricane while it moves near the southeastern United States coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical guidance during the first day or so, then near the HFIP corrected consensus model later in the period.

As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning. The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida. By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. The overall track envelope has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC forecast was required.

It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the hurricane warning area. In addition, Dorian's wind field is predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer to the east coast of Florida even if the track does change.

Dorian remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery. Recent radar and aircraft observations are again showing signs of a concentric eyewall structure which might be one of the factors that has led to a decrease in the peak winds and a small expansion of the wind field. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported peak flight-level winds of 129 kt, SFMR winds of 121 kt, and a central pressure that has risen to 940 mb. Based on these observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 125 kt. Some additional decrease in wind speed is likely in the short term due due to a possible eyewall replacement and upwelling of cooler waters caused by the very slow motion of the hurricane. Although some additional slow weakening is forecast while the hurricane moves northward along the southeastern United States coastline due to increasing southwesterly shear, Dorian is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane during that time. The NHC intensity forecast forecast is a blend of the latest statistical and and consensus model guidance.

Dorian has become nearly stationary this afternoon with the two most recent aircraft fixes showing essentially no motion. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion should resume overnight and continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only slowly pulling away from Grand Bahama Island. By Tuesday afternoon, Dorian should begin its much anticipated northwestward turn as a weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge. Although the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore. A broad mid- latitude trough should help turn Dorian northeastward by Wednesday night, and the track models show the center coming precariously close to the southeastern United States coast. The tracks from the 1200 UTC runs of the global models have remained fairly stable, which has resulted in little overall change to the latest NHC track forecast.

Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, strong winds and a life-threatening storm surge are likely along a portion of the U.S east coast from Florida through the Carolinas.