There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

None

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 44.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it approaches the northern Leeward Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized
this morning. Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical
depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the satellite estimates. The depression is forecast to move over
gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable upper-level environment. The only negative factor for
intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast
during the next several days. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain
hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models.

Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the
next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.