1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there overnight.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin
- St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over Barbuda, St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is also forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with maximum amounts of 3 inches, across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas during the next few hours.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 62.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will pass well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, pass well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western Atlantic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the several days, and Jerry could remain a hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

Jerry has been displaying a classic bursting convective pattern with a nearly circular CDO that expanded over the circulation since the last advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission that just arrived in Jerry indicated that the center is farther northeast than previously estimated, which appears coincident with the location of the most recent bursts of convection. Since subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 61 kt to 77 kt, the initial intensity remains 70 kt. This intensity could be adjusted based on what the plane finds while investigating the circulation. The central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb based on the center drop from the plane.

The hurricane is still moving quickly west-northwestward with an initial motion of 295/15 kt. The track forecast is fairly straightforward. Jerry is approaching a break in the subtropical ridge, created by a deep-layer trough currently moving across the northwestern Atlantic. This pattern is expected to cause Jerry to gradually recurve around the ridge during the next 5 days, with its forward motion reaching a minimum between 48-72 hours when it moves near the ridge axis. There is very good agreement among the track guidance on this scenario, and the only notable spread is related to the system's forward speed when it accelerates on day 5. The consensus aids are holding tough on a relatively consistent trajectory, so little change was made from the previous official forecast.

Dropsonde data from a NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission indicate that anticyclonic flow continues over the hurricane at the 200-mb outflow level (except it's restricted a bit to the west), but 15-25 kt of northeasterly flow is cutting through the circulation just below 250 mb. Despite this flow, Jerry's structure does not appear to have degraded too much. Since the hurricane appears that it will move beneath an upper-level anticyclone in about 24 hours, its intensity may not decrease too much over the next several days. And despite an increase in westerly shear after 48 hours, enhanced upper-level divergence to the east of an upper-level trough could offset the potential for weakening. Accounting for uncertainties, the NHC intensity forecast maintains a fairly steady strength for the entire forecast period, keeping Jerry as a hurricane for the next 5 days. This forecast is close to the HCCA model and the simple consensus aids, but it's notable that it's up to 20 kt lower than the statistical-dynamical models by the end of the forecast period.