1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there overnight.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL STATEMENT: Jerry is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts of 3 inches, across St. Maarten, Anguilla, Anegada, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western Atlantic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission earlier this morning indicated that Jerry had weakened, with the mid-level eye/center tilted to the east of the low-level center due to some westerly mid-level wind shear. The highest 700-mb flight-level and SFMR surface winds reported were 62 kt and 56 kt, respectively, which supports a lower intensity of about 55 kt. The minimum pressure of 995 mb is based on center dropsonde data of 999 mb with a 38-kt surface wind.

Jerry has turned northwestward and the initial motion estimate is now 310/13 kt. Jerry is forecast to continue moving northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge today through Sunday, followed by a northward turn on Monday. By Tuesday, a deep-layer trough is expected to capture Jerry and accelerate the cyclone northeastward in the general direction of Bermuda. There remains excellent agreement among the track models on this developing scenario, and the official track lies close to the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Jerry is likely to experience fluctuations in intensity during the next 72 hours due to increases/decreases in the vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone. By 96 hours as Jerry moves closer to Bermuda, the cyclone is forecast to come move into the right-rear entrance region of a modest jetstream maximum, not unlike what occurred with former Hurricane Humberto a few days ago. Thus, despite the expected increase in the vertical wind shear to at least 30 kt, re-intensification into a hurricane is forecast similar to a consensus of the global models.