1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

A very large burst of deep convection has formed near Jerry, but there is no sign from recent microwave data that it is causing any significant change in structure. The center still appears to be on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, which is consistent with a tropical cyclone undergoing moderate-to-strong northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, a bit above the ASCAT pass from several hours ago, but at that time the center was exposed, so it is reasonable to think the system is a bit stronger than shown in that pass. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should investigate the system around 1200 UTC.

Overall, there are a lot of mixed signals with the future strength of Jerry. While the storm should remain over very warm waters, any relaxation of the current shear isn't expected to last very long, and the consensus of the models is that an expected mid-latitude trough interaction should lead to much weakening or strengthening. Thus, little change in strength is shown throughout the period, similar to the last forecast, and only slight weakening is shown at long range as Jerry undergoes the first stages of extratropical transition.

The initial motion is slower to the north-northwest, 330/10 kt. The biggest change from the past advisory is shifting the forecast track westward about half a degree in about 48 hours, with more of the models showing that the aforementioned trough interaction will steer the storm more to the left. Jerry should then accelelerate to the northeast ahead of the next mid-latitude trough, and the forecast track is a little faster at long range.