1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 67.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

Overnight the center of Jerry became partially exposed, a result of strong westerly shear. However, a new burst of very deep convection has recently formed and obscured the low-level center again. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is well supported by earlier ASCAT data, and another reconaissance mission is scheduled for this morning to take a closer look.

The current shear is forecast to slightly weaken during the next few days as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters with drier air in the mid-levels. There will also be a mid-latitude trough that will be near Jerry in a day or so, but the evidence is piling up that the trough interaction will be a neutral or negative factor for the storm. The intensity forecast is held almost the same as the previous one, following the corrected- consensus guidance. The cyclone could be close to dissipating around day 5 due to continuation of the shear and cold water if the latest global models are correct, so the forecast is lowered at that time.

Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt, and that general motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the northeast and then the east is forecast after that when the trough reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. There are some substantial speed differences in the models, partially due to the aforementioned trough interaction, but most of the models are still in agreement with the above scenario. The new forecast is close to the previous one, adjusted somewhat to the south at longer range.