1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The government of Barbados has canceled the Hurricane Watch for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Barbados
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
- St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Tobago
- Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 54.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft has not yet completed its survey of Gonzalo, but preliminary data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but some strengthening is possible during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week.

Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The most recent minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter plane was 1008 mb (29.76 inches).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Gonzalo earlier this afternoon and found it to very poorly organized. The aircraft even reported seeing multiple low-level swirls which is surprising given the small size of the cyclone. The highest flight-level winds measured by the plane were 41 kt while the highest believable SFMR values were right around 35 kt. Based on that data, Gonzalo's intensity has been lowered to 35 kt.

Small systems like Gonzalo are notorious for quick changes in structure and intensity, both up and down. Therefore, despite its current downswing, it is too soon to say for sure that Gonzalo will not restrengthen to some degree before it reaches the southern Windward Islands. That said, confidence in the intensity forecast is a little higher now that we have better data to base the forecast on and it does not seem likely that Gonzalo will overcome the dry air that is currently inhibiting its development. Given the current structure of the tropical storm, the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered significantly, but still allows for some slight restrengthening during the next 24 h. The new forecast is much closer to the intensity consensus, below only the HWRF model which does not appear to have a realistic initialization. Once Gonzalo reaches the eastern Caribbean, weakening is anticipated and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, if not sooner.

Gonzalo has sped westward all day with a motion near 270/16 kt. The guidance continues to insist that Gonzalo will gain a little latitude in the near future, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is still forecast for the next few days. The NHC track forecast has again been shifted southward, but now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and very near the various track consensus aids.