1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials.xx

2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding.xx

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
- Tobago
- Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago could lead to areas of flash flooding.

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 57.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to westnorthwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Although there has been a recent increase in deep convection in association with Gonzalo, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continues to show that the tropical cyclone is poorly organized. The aircraft has not yet found winds to support tropical storm strength, however the advisory intensity will remain a possibly generous 35-kt until the aircraft completes its mission overnight. There is also some possibility that this recent convective burst could result in some short-term re-organization. However, with the system losing organization over the past day or so, it is becoming less likely that the small cyclone will be able to significantly recover due to the nearby dry mid-level environment. The updated NHC intensity forecast no longer calls for any re-strengthening, and Gonzalo could even become a tropical depression before reaching the Windward Islands. After that time, dry air and Gonzalo's close proximity to the coast of Venezuela are likely to cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure. The NHC forecast now calls for dissipation by 60 h, but this could occur sooner.

Gonzalo continues moving generally westward or 270/15 kt. The system is not expected to gain much latitude as it should continue moving westward to west-northwestward within the low-level easterly flow. The track guidance continues to trend southward and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted in that direction. The new track lies to the south of the consensus aids, closest to the GFS and UKMET ensemble means.