1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Windward Islands today and tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials.xx

2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding.xx

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
- Tobago
- Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela through Monday.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 58.7 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to westnorthwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands later today. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

On the last leg in the east semicircle of Gonzalo, the 53rd Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported numerous SFMR winds of 35 to 40 kts, with lighter winds at flight-level. The surface circulation, however, was still poorly defined, and barely closed. Based on the reconnaissance observations, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

Due to the fact that Gonzalo is moving within an impeding thermodynamic environment, little change in intensity is forecast as the cyclone approaches the southern Windward Islands this afternoon. As Gonzalo moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea, lingering large-scale subsidence and the cyclone's close proximity to the coast of Venezuela are predicted to cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in a couple of days which is consistent with the global model's solution.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/15 kt. Gonzalo should gain very little latitude with time as it continues moving westward to west-northwestward within the fresh low-level tradewind flow. The official forecast is once again nudged a bit toward the south and aligns with the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model.