1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the northwestern Bahamas through today.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward alongthe east coast of Florida within the warning area through earlyMonday. These conditions are expected to spread northward along thecoast of Georgia and South Carolina within the warning area onMonday.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coastfrom Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to

4.eet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastlineand adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice givenby local emergency officials.4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threateningflash flooding across portions of the northwestern Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic this week.5. Tropical storm watches are in effect for portions of the coastof South and North Carolina. Additional watches and warnings willlikely be issued later today as Isaias is expected to movenorthward near or over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts overthe next couple of days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida
- Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Hallandale Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
- Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and midAtlantic coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Miami Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL...13 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...24 ft Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC...13 ft Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...24 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight. These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in South and North Carolina beginning Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations:

Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially lifethreatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and MidAtlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Central and Northwest Bahamas and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 79.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a northnorthwestward motion tonight. A turn toward the north and northnortheast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the east coast of Florida today through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern midAtlantic states.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported at Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, and a Weatherflow observing site at Junno Beach Pier, Florida, measured a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

The burst of deep convection that developed to the northeast of thecenter last evening has not resulted in any significant improvement in the structure of Isaias according to recent reconnaissance aircraft data and radar imagery. The tropical cyclone is still being adversely affected by about 25 kt of 850-200 mb vertical wind shear. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has provided several center fixes overnight has found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt, and peak believable SFMR winds of 51 kt. These data, along with an earlier ASCAT overpass, indicate that Isaias' intensity is 55 kt. In addition, both the aircraft and ASCAT data suggest that the wind field over the western portion of the circulation is somewhat smaller than previous estimated.

Since Isaias has not shown any signs of re-organizing overnight, itappears that the window of opportunity for it to re-strengthen isclosing. The SHIPS guidance and global model fields do not showthe shear abating during the next 24-36 hours while Isaias moves near the Florida coast. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength during this time. Later in the period, gradual weakening should occur as the storm moves northward along the east coast of the United States. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model and the latest multi-model intensity consensus.

Recent aircraft fixes and radar data show that Isaias is movingnorthwestward or 325/8 kt. A slow northwestward tonorth-northwestward motion around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge centered near Bermuda should take the center of Isaias very near the east coast of Florida through Monday. Afterthat, the tropical cyclone should begin to acceleratenorth-northeastward to northeastward as a trough slides eastwardinto the eastern United States. The dynamical models are tightlyclustered, and the NHC track forecast lies between the typicallyreliable GFS and ECMWF models.

The reduction in the initial and predicted intensity of Isaias hasnecessitated changes in warnings along the east coast of Florida.The Hurricane Warning along the east-central coast of Florida hasbeen replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.