1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of

2.to

4.feet above ground level from Edisto Beach South Carolina toCape Fear North Carolina along the immediate coastline and adjacentwaterways. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along theNorth Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in theseareas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within theTropical Storm Warning area from Florida to Maryland throughearly Tuesday. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength whenit reaches the coast of northern South Carolina and southern NorthCarolina Monday night, and strong tropical storm force winds arelikely with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watcharea.

3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentiallylife-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas throughtonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significantin the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected throughmidweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast ofthe United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding ispossible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.4. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread northward across the remainder of the U.S east coast on Tuesday and early Wednesday. A tropical storm watch is in effect through Long Island Sound and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued on Monday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the east coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida to Fenwick Island Delaware
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Chesapeake Bay southward from Smith Point

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Fenwick Island Delaware northward to Watch Hill Rhode Island
- Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point
- Tidal Potomac River
- Delaware Bay
- Long Island and Long Island Sound

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...24 ft Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...13 ft North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and the Tidal Potomac River...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in South and North Carolina tonight and early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 12 inches.

Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 4 inches.

Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas and the midAtlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially lifethreatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the midAtlantic, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the midAtlantic. Additionally, quickresponding rivers in the southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South Carolina during the afternoon and evening today, and across eastern North Carolina this evening and tonight.

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 79.8 West. Isaias is moving toward the northnorthwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the north and northnortheast along with an increase in forward speed is anticipated later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east coast through this morning. The center of Isaias will then move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina later today, move inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight and move along the coast of the midAtlantic states on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. midAtlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41010, located about 130 miles (210 km) eastnortheast of Cape Canaveral, reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

Isais has not become better organized on satellite and radar imagery at this time. The cyclone continues to produce vigorous deep convection but this convection continues to be displaced to the northeast of the center, and convective banding features are ill-defined. Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations show that the central pressure has not fallen since earlier today, and flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind measurements from the aircraft indicate that the intensity remains near 60 kt. Although Isais will be moving through an environment of fairly strong southwesterly shear during the next day or so, it will also be traversing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream with its high oceanic heat content. The latter factor could result in the system becoming a hurricane near landfall. The official forecast is close to the intensity consensus, which keeps Isaias just below hurricane strength.It should be emphasized that there is little difference between a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane, in terms of impacts.After landfall, the interaction with land and strong shear should result in steady weakening. Based on the global models, the cyclone is likely to become an extratropical cyclone after it moves into Canada and dissipate over the north Atlantic shortly thereafter. The motion continues to be slightly west of due north or 345/8 kt.There has been no significant change to the track forecastreasoning. Over the next couple of days, Isaias is expected toaccelerate north-northeastward on the east side of a large 500 mbtrough over the eastern United States and then turn northeastwardin 3 to 4 days as it moves through the mid-latitude westerlies.The official track forecast is very close to the previous one andsimilar to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. This isbetween the GFS, which shows a slightly faster motion and the ECMWF,which is slightly slower.