1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane strength before itreaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southernNorth Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected in theHurricane Warning by this evening. Preparations should be rushed tocompletion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to portions of southern New England through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible across other portions of New England within the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Wednesday. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

4. Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minorto moderate river flooding is possible across portions of theCarolinas and the mid-Atlantic.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
- North of Surf City North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island
- Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
- Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island
- Delaware Bay
- Long Island and Long Island Sound
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine
- Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...35 ft Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...24 ft Cape Fear NC to Cape Hatteras NC including Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...24 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Edisto Beach SC...13 ft North of Cape Hatteras NC to Cape May NJ including Albemarle Sound, Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to southern New England through Tuesday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in New England beginning late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 12 inches.

Eastern Florida and coastal Georgia: Up to an additional 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas and the midAtlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the midAtlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the midAtlantic. Additionally, quickresponding rivers in the southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into southern New England.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 80.1 West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north and northnortheast along with an increase in forward speed is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia coast through this morning. The center of Isaias will then approach the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the hurricane warning area later today. The center will then move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight, and move along the coast of the midAtlantic states on Tuesday and into the northeastern United States by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated today, and Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. midAtlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. During the past hour a wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) was observed at the St, Augustine Pier, Florida, and a sustained wind of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow station at the Jacksonville Beach Pier, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

Isaias continues to produce an area of vigorous convection near andto the northeast of its low-level center. Overnight radar data fromMelbourne and Jacksonville have shown a transient mid-level eyefeature that is located northeast of the low-level center. Theearlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew near thatfeature before departing the storm and found 700-mb flight-levelwinds of 71 kt, with the highest SFMR winds still around 60 kt,which is the basis for the initial wind speed for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Isaias within the next several hours.

The vertical wind shear that has been plaguing Isaias is forecastto abate slightly today as the storm turns north-northeastward. Allof the intensity models shows some slight strengthening during thenext 12 hours, and the global models also indicate some deepening.As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for Isaias toregain hurricane status before the system moves over the coast of the Carolinas. The new intensity forecast has necessitatedthe issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coasts ofnorthern South Carolina and southern North Carolina. Afterlandfall, Isaias is forecast to gradually weaken, but given the fastforward motion of the storm, strong winds are expected to spreadnorthward along the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast UnitedStates. The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a largerextratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days.

Isaias is moving northward or 355/8 kt. The track forecastreasoning remains the same as before. The tropical storm isexpected to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward aheadof a large mid-level trough over the eastern United States during the next couple of days. The dynamical models are in good agreementexcept for some slight differences in the forward speed of Isaias.The NHC track forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids,which have once again trended slightly faster.