1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of thenorthern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Ricothrough Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also expected alongthe northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and theTurks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday.Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and couldcause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of thecentral Bahamas Sunday night.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecastsremain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to movenear or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impactsto portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week andthe northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Intereststhere should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to theforecast during the next few days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas.

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- British Virgin Islands
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
- The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti
- The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic
- The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area tonight through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 63.5 West. Laura is moving toward the westnorthwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a generally westnorthwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola Saturday night and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Laura remains quite disorganized this evening. Although satelliteand radar images show a fair amount of deep convection over and tothe east of the northern Leeward Islands, NOAA HurricaneHunter data and surface observations indicate that the low-levelcenter is located well to the west of the main area of deepconvection. This asymmetric structure indicates that Laura is stillnot vertically aligned due to at least moderate wind shear. Theinitial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt, and most ofthe strongest winds are well north and east of the center.

The steering pattern for Laura appears to be very well established.A subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic isexpected to expand westward, and that should cause Laura to movewest-northwestward at a fairly quick pace during the next few days.This should take the storm across Puerto Rico on Saturday, nearHispaniola Saturday night, and close to or over Cuba on Sunday andMonday. By early next week, Laura should approach the western endof the ridge and that should cause the storm to slow down and turntoward the northwest over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico.Even though the steering pattern is well established, there arestill chances of center reformations, which could cause small butimportant track changes. The NHC track forecast has been adjusteda little to the south of the previous one to account for the moresouthern initial position and westward motion. Near the end of the period, Laura's track could also be influenced by Tropical Storm Marco, which is also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico, however the details of that interaction are highly uncertain at this time.

Although the storm's structure is quite ragged at the moment, someof the models do show Laura becoming better organized thisweekend and early next week due to a decrease in wind shear andvery warm waters. However, there is significant uncertainty on howmuch the circulation will interact with the rugged islands ofHispaniola and Cuba. If the storm is able to stay north of thoseislands, some notable strengthening is possible as depicted by theHWRF and HMON models. However, if the storm moves over theislands, it might not strengthen at all until it passes throughthat area. The bottom line is the intensity forecast is verytrack dependent, which makes it more uncertain than normal. Giventhat the new track shows more land interaction, this forecast showsless strengthening in the short term, but is largely unchanged atthe longer forecast times.