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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 67.4 West. Omar is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the eastnortheast with some reduction in forward speed is forecast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Weakening should begin Thursday, with Omar likely to become a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

Although is seems as though we've been predicting it ad nauseam, the persistent, blistering shear has finally begun to dramatically affect the cyclone. What remains of the deep convective cloud mass is separated more than 100 miles east-southeast of the exposed surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB using the shear scene-type. Omar's winds should begin to decrease later tonight as the exposed surface center further decouples from the convective mass. A few of the large-scale models show Omar dissipating as soon as Friday, but for this NHC intensity forecast, I'll indicate weakening to a depression Thursday, followed by degeneration to a remnant low in 36 hours, similar to the multi-model consensus intensity aids and the LGEM.

Omar's initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 080/11 kt, and is being steered by the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies produced by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue on this general course through Friday. On Saturday, the remnant low is expected to slow a bit, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching frontal boundary moving away from the Canadian Maritimes. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX consensus models.