There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 39.0 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A continued westnorthwestward motion is expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated and the system is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

The depression continues to march west-northwestward with little change in its structure so far. Scatterometer data near 00Z revealed that the system is still elongated southwest to northeast with maximum winds near 30 kt. Convection has become a little more concentrated to the southwest of the depression's center during the past few hours, so perhaps this is a sign that it will start getting organized soon.

As long as the depression remains disorganized, only minimal strengthening is likely. However, once the system comes together, all indications are that it will strengthen, perhaps significantly so. The cyclone still has several days to strengthen within a low-shear/high-SST environment, and even the global models explicitly forecast the system to become a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged and still brings the depression to major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the dynamical hurricane models indicate it could strengthen faster than that, so this forecast could wind up being conservative.

The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward. A large mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic should keep the cyclone on this general heading for the next couple of days. After that, the ridge is forecast to move north and east, and the strengthening cyclone should turn toward the northwest in response. While the exact details vary from model to model, all of the dynamical track guidance supports this general scenario. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the model consensus and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005. The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model tracks.

Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make that forecast at this time.