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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Wilfred was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 44.2 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading toward the west or westnorthwestward for the next few days until dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Wilfred should weaken to a remnant low within a couple days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

First-light visible imagery of Wilfred shows a well-defined center south of widespread - but not very well banded - deep convection. The improved positioning this morning allows for a more confident assessment of its movement toward the west-northwest at 17 kt. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or west-northwest until dissipation. The new track forecast is slightly farther west due to the faster initial motion within 36 hours, then slightly farther east afterward based upon the TVCN track consensus approach. While the ASCAT scatterometer passes this morning missed Wilfred's center, ASCAT-B observed 30 kt peak winds in its northeastern quadrant. This value is used as the initial intensity, consistent with both SAB and TAFB's Dvorak classifications. The combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on the southern side of an impinging upper-level trough are causing about 20 kt vertical shear from the west-northwest. This shear should increase over the next couple of days as Wilfred gets into closer proximity with the trough. The strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction of the deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a couple of days followed within another day or so by dissipation. All statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement with this scenario. Alternatively, Wilfred could become a remnant low sooner, if the convection ceases later today or Monday.

Wilfred is not a healthy tropical cyclone as strong vertical shear from the combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on the southern side of a nearby upper-level trough are impinging upon the system. While there is substantial deep convection, it is more linear rather than curved in appearance and it may be more a product of forcing from the upper-level trough rather than the tropical cyclone itself. Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have reduced some at 18Z, though the intensity remains a perhaps generous 30 kt.

The tropical cyclone continues to move west-northwest at a fast 17 kt clip. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or west-northwest until dissipation. The new track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory, except for the final 60 hr point that does show a turn toward the northwest based upon the TVCN and HCCA track consensus techniques.

Strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction in the deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a day or two followed shortly thereafter by dissipation. Most statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement. A plausible alternate scenario is that the small circulation opens up into a trough and dissipation occurs sooner than indicated below. It is worth noting that the ECMWF model does suggest the possibility of reformation of the system farther north by day three. However, this scenario is discounted at this ti