CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 55.4 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion with a similar forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Friday.

Satellitederived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by Thursday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km), primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).

A curved band of deep convection persists near and over the center of Epsilon this morning. The cyclone is experiencing southwesterly vertical wind shear as it interacts with an upper-level trough to its southwest, and the storm still has a hybrid-like appearance in satellite imagery with a band of convection well to the east and northeast of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that some dry mid-level air is impinging on the south and west sides of the circulation. A very recent ASCAT-A overpass shows several 45-kt vectors in the southeast quadrant, and it is certainly possible that the intensity could be near 50 kt based on the known undersampling issues. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt with this advisory, which is consistent with a T3.0 Dvorak classification from SAB. Epsilon remains a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than 250 n mi in the northern semicircle.

Although Epsilon was drifting northeastward earlier this morning, recent visible satellite imagery suggest Epsilon is beginning to turn north-northwestward or northwestward with a faster forward speed as a mid-level ridge builds to its north and east. This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Beyond 72 h, a deep-layer trough moving eastward into the western Atlantic should cause Epsilon to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward near the end of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made to the previous track in line with the consensus aids (excluding the outlying HWRF solution at this time). Epsilon is still forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

The intensity forecast remains tricky since moderate south-southwesterly shear is expected to persist for another 12-18 h as Epsilon continues to interact with a nearby upper-level trough. By the time the deep-layer shear abates, Epsilon will be gaining latitude and moving over waters with lower oceanic heat content. Additionally, intrusions of environmental dry air could inhibit or at least slow the development process. Regardless, the global models show fairly significant deepening of the cyclone in the coming days, and the intensity guidance consensus still supports at least gradual strengthening. Therefore, little change was made to the official NHC intensity forecast, which still shows Epsilon becoming a hurricane late this week.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the island.