CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 56.3 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly slower westnorthwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km), mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

Epsilons structure has greatly improved this afternoon. Deep convection is wrapped more tightly around the center, and a small central dense overcast is evident in recent satellite imagery. Overall, the cyclone appears better organized and more tropical in nature as it fends off weak to moderate deep-layer shear and some dry mid-level air in its surrounding environment. There are even some hints of an eye-like feature trying to develop in recent visible and microwave imagery. A 14Z ASCAT-B overpass showed several 45-50 kt wind barbs in the northern semicircle of Epsilon, and its organization has improved since then. A T3.5 Dvorak classification from SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 55 kt with this advisory. Epsilon is a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward as far as 300 n mi in its northern semicircle.

The cyclone has accelerated northwestward today, and its estimated motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/12 kt. Epsilon should continue to move northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and east. The tightly clustered guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward and is faster with the storm motion through about 72 h, and these trends are reflected in the official NHC track forecast. Epsilon is now forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday night before recurving ahead of an upper-level trough that should move over the western Atlantic this weekend. By day 5, Epsilon could be near the beginning of its extratropical transition as it races northeastward across the central Atlantic.

Epsilon has strengthened today despite some negative environmental factors including weak to moderate deep-layer shear and dry air noted in water vapor imagery along the southwestern periphery of the storm. Given recent satellite trends and little expected change in the environmental conditions during the next day or so, additional strengthening appears likely. The official NHC track forecast lies well above the guidance consensus in the near term and most closely follows the SHIPS output, which brings Epsilon to hurricane strength overnight. As the cyclone gains latitude and moves over waters with lower oceanic heat content beyond 48 h, the intensity is expected to level off, and the NHC forecast better aligns with the ICON and HCCA aids through the rest of the forecast period.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday or early Friday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf conditions also likely.