1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along thecoasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and theLeeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread toportions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canadaduring the next couple of days.

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermudathrough this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closestapproach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effectfor Bermuda.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currentsare expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the GreaterAntilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 60.5 West. Epsilon has been wobbling during the past few hours, but its longerterm motion is now toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This northwestward motion is expected to continue today. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the northnorthwest late today and toward the north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda later this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible through this morning, but a weakening trend is expected to begin later today and continue into the weekend.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

The eye of the hurricane remains well-defined this evening, although the surrounding cloud tops are beginning to warm a bit. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Epsilon a little while ago and found peak 700 mb flight level winds of 110 kt, which continues to support an intensity of 100 kt. The central pressure had fallen slightly since this afternoon, but recent center fixes suggest that it is leveling off. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next 12 hours or so due to inner-core processes. Later on Thursday, a slow weakening trend is expected to begin as vertical shear over Epsilon should gradually increase. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model consensus. By 96 hours, the global models indicate that the strong cyclone will merge with a frontal zone over the mid-latitudes, and the NHC forecast shows the system as extratropical by that time. Epsilon's motion has exhibited what is likely a trochoidal wobble, which is typical of slow-moving intense hurricanes. This has resulted in a more westward track during the past 6 hours or so. The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt, and is indeed more westward than previous estimates. However, recent satellite images indicate little short-term motion. The track model guidance is in very good agreement that Epsilon will move northwestward and then north-northwestward on Friday and Friday night. Later, the cyclone should move north of the subtropical ridge, and turn northward and northeastward. By days 4-5, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward under the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast is right on top of the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance, HCCA and is only slightly west of the previous NHC track through 24 hours. This puts the closest approach of Epsilon to Bermuda between 00Z and 06Z Friday.

Epsilon's eye has lost some definition and become cloud filled inconventional satellite imagery during the past few hours, and an0604 UTC AMSR2 microwave image showed that the eyewall has beeneroded on the west side. Given the degradation of the cloud patternand lowering Dvorak estimates, Epsilon's initial intensity is beingset, likely generously, at 95 kt. A recent UW-CIMSS SATCONestimate suggests that the intensity could be 10-15 kt lower thanthat, but I'd rather we see the aircraft reconnaissance data in afew hours before reducing it any further.

Epsilon's trochoidal wobbles have continued overnight, but alonger-term 12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane has turnedtoward the northwest (320/6 kt). A mid-tropospheric high over thecentral Atlantic will be Epsilon's main driver, causing thehurricane to turn toward the north-northwest later today and thentoward the north tonight. Shorter-term deviations around thisgeneral trajectory will be possible if the trochoidal oscillationscontinue through the day. Epsilon is forecast to turn toward thenortheast and accelerate on Saturday when it becomes embeddedin the mid-latitude westerlies, taking it past southeasternNewfoundland and into the north Atlantic early next week. The newNHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly clusteredmodel guidance, and close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.However, because of the recent wobbles, this new forecast liesabout 40 n mi to the east of the previous forecast during the first36 hours.

Epsilon's forecast track takes it over a rather homogeneous fieldof sea surface temperatures between 25-26 degrees Celsius for thenext 48-60 hours as vertical shear increases somewhat. Gradualweakening is anticipated during that period, but a more suddendecrease in ocean temperatures after 60 hours should induce quickerweakening thereafter. Hurricane and global models both agree onthis scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to theIVCN consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Epsilon isexpected to merge with a frontal zone and become extratropical byday 4.