1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday, with outer rain bands impacting Puerto Rico Friday into Saturday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Barbados
- Martinique
- St. Lucia
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches are expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 52.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the westnorthwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). An even faster motion toward the westnorthwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By early Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km), mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Just-received scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt winds to the northeast of the center, so the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. Some slight revisions were also made to the initial and forecast wind radii. Over all, the organization of the storm has changed little during the past several hours, with the low-level center partly exposed to the north and northwest of the primary convective band.

Elsa continues to move a little faster with the initial motion now 280/24. A rapid west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 48 h or so as Elsa is steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the north. After that time, the storm is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United states. The guidance becomes rather divergent as this happens, as the ECWMF and ECMWF ensemble mean forecast a turn toward the north while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a west-northwestward to northwestward motion. The latter part of the new NHC forecast track will lean more toward the GFS/UKMET solutions at this time, but the large spread in both the deterministic models and the ensembles make this part of the forecast of low confidence. The new official forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

Some additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so as Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, light vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, as mentioned earlier, the fast forward motion could result in some decoupling of the lower and upper parts of the storm, and this could limit strengthening. The latter part of the intensity forecast also has high uncertainty due to the possibility of land interaction and disagreements among the global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be. Based on these factors, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite.