1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday.

2. Heavy rainfall will gradually subside across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands tonight, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico by late tonight, and affect southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides are possible. By early next week, heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Significant flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti
- Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic
- Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
- St. Lucia
- Martinique
- The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
- South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Grenada and its dependencies
- Saba and Sint Eustatius
- North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.

By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 63.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the west near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A west northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday. Slow weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa passes near or over the Greater Antilles. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa has strengthened a little more since the last advisory, with a combination of flight-level winds, SFMR surface wind estimates, and dropsonde data showing that the maximum winds are near 75 kt. The aircraft also reported that the 700-mb circulation remains somewhat disorganized, and that the 700-mb center is not vertically aligned with with the surface center. The former issue is likely due to the rapid motion, and the latter may be due to the effects of westerly shear.

The initial motion now is 290/26. There is again little change to the forecast track or the forecast guidance. The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti by 24-30 h, followed by a continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed through 48 h. After that time, Elsa should gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. This motion should take the cyclone across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the nearby Florida Peninsula, eventually moving into the southeastern United States by the end of the period. The track guidance is a little less divergent than earlier, but there is still enough spread in the potential tracks that this part of the forecast remains low confidence.

The latest global model runs and the associated intensity guidance are forecasting a less favorable environment for Elsa during the next several days. The SHIPS model now calls for 10-20 kt of northwesterly shear during the next 48 h, and 15-25 kt of shear after 60 h. In addition, the 12Z GFS forecasts a considerably weaker storm than its last several runs. The intensity forecast thus calls for little change in strength during the first 24 h, although it is possible the hurricane could strengthen a little more during that time. After that, land interaction and shear are likely to cause weakening until Elsa emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. However, the HWRF still calls for Elsa to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane, and like the track forecast the intensity forecast remains of low confidence due to the spread in the guidance.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points.

Corrected motion heading in second paragraph.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa has strengthened a little more since the last advisory, with a combination of flight-level winds, SFMR surface wind estimates, and dropsonde data showing that the maximum winds are near 75 kt. The aircraft also reported that the 700-mb circulation remains somewhat disorganized, and that the 700-mb center is not vertically aligned with with the surface center. The former issue is likely due to the rapid motion, and the latter may be due to the effects of westerly shear.

The initial motion now is 280/26. There is again little change to the forecast track or the forecast guidance. The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti by 24-30 h, followed by a continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed through 48 h. After that time, Elsa should gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. This motion should take the cyclone across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the nearby Florida Peninsula, eventually moving into the southeastern United States by the end of the period. The track guidance is a little less divergent than earlier, but there is still enough spread in the potential tracks that this part of the forecast remains low confidence.

The latest global model runs and the associated intensity guidance are forecasting a less favorable environment for Elsa during the next several days. The SHIPS model now calls for 10-20 kt of northwesterly shear during the next 48 h, and 15-25 kt of shear after 60 h. In addition, the 12Z GFS forecasts a considerably weaker storm than its last several runs. The intensity forecast thus calls for little change in strength during the first 24 h, although it is possible the hurricane could strengthen a little more during that time. After that, land interaction and shear are likely to cause weakening until Elsa emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. However, the HWRF still calls for Elsa to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane, and like the track forecast the intensity forecast remains of low confidence due to the spread in the guidance.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points.