1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today and in Jamaica beginning Sunday.

2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding with mudslides in Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible.

3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti
- Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic
- Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
- South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.

Across portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding with mudslides in Cuba.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 70.3 West. Elsa is moving very quickly toward the westnorthwest near 31 mph (50 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

Elsa appears less organized this morning. Satellite images show an asymmetric cloud pattern with the low-level center located near the northwestern edge of the main area of thunderstorms. This satellite presentation is indicative of moderate-to-strong northwesterly shear that is likely caused by the tropical cyclone's fast forward motion. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt following a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. The hurricane passed by NOAA buoy 42059 a few hours ago, and the storm's minimum pressure was adjusted a few millibars higher based on the buoy's data. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be flying through Elsa in a couple of hours, and the data the plane collects will provide a better estimate of Elsa's intensity and structure.

Elsa continues to move very quickly to the west-northwest at about 27 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it on a west-northwest path, albeit at a slightly slower pace through the weekend. This should take the core of the storm just south of or over southern Hispaniola later today and near or across Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Sunday. Shortly after that time, Elsa is expected to near the western edge of the ridge and move toward a weakness over the southeastern U.S. In response to this pattern change, Elsa should slow down some more and turn to the north. The models appear to be slowly converging on a solution in showing the cyclone making the northward turn somewhere over Cuba on Monday and then heading in the vicinity of Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday. Although the models are in better agreement compared to previous days, there is still a considerable amount of spread in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members, and the details of the long-term track are still uncertain.

Some mid-level wind shear associated with Elsa's fast forward speed appears to be affecting the hurricane now. However, since the cyclone is expected to slow down and move beneath an upper-level anticyclone later this weekend, it seems likely that the vortex will become better aligned in the vertical. The big question is will Elsa be interacting with the mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba when the environmental winds become conducive for strengthening. If the cyclone manages to stay south of those islands, Elsa could have an opportunity to restrengthen. Conversely, if the storm tracks directly over the islands, weakening would very likely occur. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength through tonight, followed by slow weakening on Sunday and early Monday. Slight restrengthening is forecast when Elsa moves north of Cuba and across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term, but is largely unchanged at the longer forecast times.

Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4.