1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti, where near-hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening.

2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible.

3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.

IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...17.5N 73.9W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Mayabeque and Havana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
- Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos
- Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
- The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
- The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane warning area in Haiti for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible for a few more hours over portions of the Dominican Republic, and are expected on Jamaica and over eastern and central Cuba on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Cayman Islands Sunday and Sunday night and in western Cuba and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 2 ft

Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature. Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 73.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the west northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti over the next few hours, and then move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Sunday, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday night and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Satellite imagery shows that Elsa looks ragged and disorganized at this time, with bursts of convection occuring near the low-level center and poorly-defined convective banding. Some of this is likely due to the the proximity of the system to Hispaniola. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported reliable 55-60 kt surface wind estimates from the SFMR, along with the latest central pressure report of 1000 mb. The initial intensity remains 60 kt based mainly on the SFMR data.

The initial motion is now 295/24. There is little change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Elsa is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic situated to the east of the this low. In response, Elsa should slow its forward motion and turn northwestward during the next 48 h, followed by a general northward motion from 60-96 h and recurvature into the westerlies after that time. The forecast track takes the center near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is changed little from the previous advisory, and it lies near the center of the now reasonably-agreeing track guidance envelope.

In addition to land interaction, Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at least partly due to the fast low-level flow that the storm is embedded in. Some shear is expected to continue through the next 72 h. However, once the system passes the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, there may be less land interaction than previously forecast. The intensity guidance is in good agreement on weakening during the next 48 h, and the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as a not very vertically aligned system with some separation between the low- and mid-level centers over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, despite the shear, upper-level divergence associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for some re-intensification as forecast by the HWRF and other models. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for some weakening in the first 48 h and then shows re- intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first 72 h, the forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Hurricane warnings remain in effect for portions of Haiti at this time, as there is still the possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due to a convective burst.

Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4.