1. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Haiti and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in central and western Cuba tonight and Monday.

3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning late Monday in the Florida Keys, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the Florida Keys.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the Florida Peninsula Monday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with Cuba.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos
- Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
- The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
- The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in southern portions of Haiti for a few more hours, and these conditions are expected to spread across Jamaica later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, in western Cuba by early Monday, and the Florida Keys by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 feet Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches remains possible today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 75.5 West. Elsa is moving toward the west northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). An additional decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern portion of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches the south central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf of Mexico some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

The last pass from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters provided interesting and somewhat confusing data on Elsa. The flight-level winds and SFMR data indicate that Elsa's intensity remains around 55 kt, but the wind center is located well to the east of the previous fixes. However, the minimum pressure observed with this new wind center is a few millibars higher than the fixes that were made further west last night. The new center is now beneath the strongest convection, so it seems likely that the mid-level circulation has built downward to the surface and led to this center reformation. Elsa does appear a little better organized in geostationary satellite and microwave images, and it now has a central dense overcast that is fairly symmetric around the center. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa shortly, and the data the aircraft collects will be very helpful in understanding these structural changes and the new intensity information.

Elsa appears to have slowed down, and smoothing through the latest center reformation yields an initial motion of 285/12 kt. Despite the changes to the initial motion and position, the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed much. Elsa is expected to move west-northwestward and track near or over Jamaica and eastern Cuba later this morning and then across or just south of the central and western portions of Cuba later today through early Monday. By early Monday, however, Elsa should be making a turn to the north as it moves between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take the storm near the Florida Keys by late Monday and near or over the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. After that time, the storm is forecast to turn northeastward and increase its forward speed as it tracks across the southeast U.S. and over the western Atlantic on the northwest side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, due in part to the initial motion and position.

The short term intensity forecast is very dependent on Elsa's exact track. If the core of the storm moves directly over Jamaica or Cuba, the small vortex would likely be very disrupted due to the mountainous islands. However, if the storm manages to pass between those islands today, some strengthening seems possible given the improved appearance in satellite images. Weakening is forecast to occur on Monday due to a combination of land interaction with Cuba and an increase in vertical wind shear. After the storm moves over the Florida Straits and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, only a small amount of restrengthening is expected due to continued moderate wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the majority of the typically skillful intensity aids.