1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible during the next several hours along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the western Florida peninsula and will continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through today.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic state by Thursday night or Friday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Florida has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning south of Chassahowitzka to Egmont Key. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Englewood. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the coasts of North Carolina and Virginia from Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to Englewood
- West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River
- Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas, the mid Atlantic coast, southeastern New England, and the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward across the western Florida Peninsula into the Florida Big Bend region in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid Atlantic states by Thursday night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across west central to north Florida into this afternoon. The tornado threat will continue later today through tonight across southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 83.5 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the north northeast is expected late this afternoon or tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida this morning, then make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon. The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid Atlantic United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until landfall later today. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

The central convection associated with Elsa dissipated for a time earlier this morning, although the latest radar and satellite imagery shows a new band forming in the northern semicircle. This decrease was likely caused by a combination of shear and dry air entrainment, and it has caused the cyclone to weaken. Aircraft and surface observations indicate the central pressure has risen to near 1004 mb, and the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 55 kt based on aircraft and Doppler radar data.

After a slight jog to the left, the storm has resumed a motion of 360/12. This motion should continue for the next 12 h or so until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by, followed by acceleration toward the northeast as Elsa moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast guidance has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track lies a little to the right of the various consensus models.

While little change in strength is forecast before landfall, there is a chance that the new convection could cause a short-lived re-intensification. So, based on this possibility a hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida. After landfall, Elsa should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States, followed by some re-intensification as it accelerates back over the Atlantic. The system is expected to become extratropical by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes in 72 h. The new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.