1. Heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result inconsiderable flash and urban flooding across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England states by Thursday night or Friday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of St. Mary's River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
- Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
- Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
- New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the midAtlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week:

Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to 3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches. Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and isolated moderate flood.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern Carolinas and parts of the MidAtlantic Coast on Thursday.

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 82.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the northnortheast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the midAtlantic coast on Friday.

Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km) generally southeast of the center near the Atlantic coast. A WeatherFlow station on Jekyll Island, Georgia recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on surface observations.

Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has moved into extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakening since earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt. This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since no surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models show some restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models at that time depict the system resembling a frontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will be completely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to when extratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches have been issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England at this time.

The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast to turn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge while accelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The official forecast is about the same as the previous one and closely follows the multi-model consensus.