1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall, from North Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern New England states and New York by Friday.

ISSUED FOR NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...32.1N 82.3W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Little River Inlet South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet New Jersey, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Altamaha Sound Georgia has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey.
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
- Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
- Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
- New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight, along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday, along the North Carolina coast on Thursday and along the mid Atlantic coast by Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely tonight through Thursday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches from late tonight through Thursday night are possible, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

From the Mid Atlantic into New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches are possible Thursday into Friday. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible overnight from southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the north northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, pass near the eastern mid Atlantic states late Thursday and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday. Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some re strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post tropical cyclone late Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mostly southeast of the center near the coast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on nearby surface observations.

Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The current wind speed is set to 40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at least 40 kt.

Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that model's relatively weaker solution.

The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a little faster, about 14 kt. Elsa should move northeastward at an increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast since guidance remains in good agreement. Elsa is likely to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical low by day 4.

There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas. Areas to the north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch.