1. As Elsa moves across North Carolina and Virginia today, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today and the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
- Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
- Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
- New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the North Carolina coasts today, and along the mid Atlantic coast by this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday and Friday night.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited to considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a tornado or two may continue tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid Atlantic to southern New England.

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 79.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the eastern mid Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A buoy near Sunset Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) gusting to 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Surface synoptic observations and high-resolution satellite images indicate that the center of the storm has moved into North Carolina. WSR 88-D Doppler radar data and surface reports indicate that the maximum winds are near 40 kt. These highest winds are likely occurring in some of the stronger convective bands near the coast.

Elsa is gradually accelerating toward the northeast, and the initial motion is about 040/17 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days as the cyclone becomes entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada during the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and continues to follow the multi-model consensus.

Some slight intensification is possible within the next 24-36 hours due to baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude short wave trough. Around 36 hours, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models depicts a cloud pattern resembling that of a frontal cyclone. Moreover, the FSU phase analyses of the GFS fields shows the system becoming extratropical at that time. This is also reflected in the official forecast.