1. As Elsa moves across the eastern mid-Atlantic overnight, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall across New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Fenwick Island, Delaware, including the Chesapeake Bay, Potomac River, Albemarle Sound, and Pamlico Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Fenwick Island, Delaware to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
- Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
- Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
- New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the midAtlantic coast this morning. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states later today.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week:

Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today, which could result in limited flash and urban flooding for the northern MidAtlantic States and considerable flash and urban flooding in New England. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today along the MidAtlantic coast.

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 75.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass through the eastern midAtlantic states this morning and move near or over the northeastern United States this afternoon and tonight. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through today, and Elsa is forecast to become a posttropical cyclone by tonight.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mostly southeast of the center. NOAA buoy 44009 near the mouth of Delaware Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h), gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches), based on nearby surface observations.

Elsa has become slightly better organized this evening. Convection near the center of Elsa has deepened, and the surface pressures have fallen a few mb since this afternoon based on observations over eastern Virginia. Although there are no wind reports above 40 kt during the past several hours, recent Doppler velocity data shows stronger winds offshore of the mid-Atlantic states, so the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt.

It appears that the early stages of extratropical transition have begun with Elsa, with almost all of the deep convection north of the center. A shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes should cause the storm to deepen on Friday but also expand in size, resulting in the maximum winds staying about the same as they are now. Elsa should transition into an extratropical cyclone within 24 hours due to the shortwave and cold waters south of New England, and then gradually weaken over Atlantic Canada and northeast of Newfoundland after it loses its baroclinic support. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the consensus of the global models.

The storm is moving faster to the northeast this evening and will gradually accelerate northeastward during the next day or two due to speedy mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern North America. Elsa should move over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 12-36 hours. The model guidance remains tightly packed on that solution, and the new official track forecast remains close to the previous one.