CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island.

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 62.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the west is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move east and south of Bermuda during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.88 inches).

A small well-defined low pressure system located just east-northeast of Bermuda has produced persistent deep convection since this morning. Radar imagery from Bermuda along with geostationary and polar orbiting microwave satellite data show that the convection is sufficiently well organized to meet the definition for a tropical cyclone. Therefore advisories have been started on Tropical Depression Eight. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on believable winds near that value in a pair of recent ASCAT overpasses. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were a little higher, so this estimate could be slightly conservative.

Confidence in the forecast is reasonably high for the next 48 to 72 h. The depression should make a slow clockwise turn around Bermuda, steered by a mid-level ridge currently centered off the coast of the Carolinas. Warm SSTs should provide ample fuel to support at least slight strengthening during this period, despite expected northerly shear, and this is shown by all of the intensity guidance. The NHC forecast is very near the multi-model consensus for both track and intensity through that period.

Beyond 72 h, the track and intensity models diverge quickly. The HWRF and COAMPS-TC models rapidly intensify the system to major hurricane strength. A stronger, deeper vortex would likely be steered generally westward through the end of the forecast period, influenced by a deeper-layer steering flow. However, the global models have a much weaker, shallower system which turns northward, and then possibly accelerates northeastward by day 5. As a result, the spread in the track guidance is nearly 800 n mi by day 5, with the GFS and HWRF taking the extreme positions to the northeast and southwest, respectively. The official track forecast takes a middle approach, and is between the various consensus aids at days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly more conservative, and is below the consensus at the end of the period. Significant changes to the forecast may be required in subsequent advisory packages.