CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 63.3 West. Henri is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion should continue through Tuesday morning. A turn toward the west is is forecast by Tuesday night, and a slightly faster westward motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical storm force winds extend outward only up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse over the southeastern portion of Henri's circulation. Although the tropical cyclone is still being affected by dry-air entrainment and light-to-moderate shear, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are a little higher than before, and a blend of those estimates yields an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory. Henri is forecast to remain over SSTs of 28-29C throughout the forecast period, but the mid-level relative humidity is forecast to remain fairly dry, which is likely to only support gradual strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly shear is anticipated, and that is likely to stop further strengthening. As mentioned in the previous advisory, given the small size of Henri, the tropical cyclone is likely to be more susceptible to this shear and it is possible that Henri weakens more than indicated below by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various statistical aids, and the CTCI and HMNI models. Less weight is again placed on the HWRF model, which remains quite aggressive in strengthening Henri over the next several days despite the expected increase in shear and dry mid-level environment.

Henri is moving southwestward or 215/4 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move in a counterclockwise motion over the next several days as it moves around a mid-tropospheric high that is forecast to shift eastward over the western Atlantic. This motion should take Henri south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. By 72 hours, the storm is expected to reach the western extent of the ridge and turn northward, and then northeastward by the end of the forecast period. There is still some spread in the guidance as to when and how sharp the turn will be. As a result, the NHC track forecast is a blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models later in the period.

Corrected statement in movement section

Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse over the southeastern portion of Henri's circulation. Although the tropical cyclone is still being affected by dry-air entrainment and light-to-moderate shear, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are a little higher than before, and a blend of those estimates yields an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory. Henri is forecast to remain over SSTs of 28-29C throughout the forecast period, but the mid-level relative humidity is forecast to remain fairly dry, which is likely to only support gradual strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly shear is anticipated, and that is likely to stop further strengthening. As mentioned in the previous advisory, given the small size of Henri, the tropical cyclone is likely to be more susceptible to this shear and it is possible that Henri weakens more than indicated below by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various statistical aids, and the CTCI and HMNI models. Less weight is again placed on the HWRF model, which remains quite aggressive in strengthening Henri over the next several days despite the expected increase in shear and dry mid-level environment.

Henri is moving southwestward or 215/4 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move in a clockwise motion over the next several days as it moves around a mid-tropospheric high that is forecast to shift eastward over the western Atlantic. This motion should take Henri south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. By 72 hours, the storm is expected to reach the western extent of the ridge and turn northward, and then northeastward by the end of the forecast period. There is still some spread in the guidance as to when and how sharp the turn will be. As a result, the NHC track forecast is a blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models later in the period.