1. The forecast track of Henri has shifted toward the northeast coast of the U.S. this weekend and early next week, increasing the risk of direct storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada during that time. Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check for updates to the forecast.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 67.6 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for another day or so. A turn to the north is expected on Friday with that motion continuing into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Henri is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

Henri appears a little better organized this afternoon. The storm still has a central dense overcast pattern and there have been hints of an eye evident in visible satellite images. Microwave images continue to show a mid-level eye feature, but the storm does not appear quite as well organized in the low-levels, and the vortex is still titled southward with height. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 55 to 67 kt, and based on that data the initial intensity is nudged up to 60 kt, just below hurricane strength.

Henri is moving just south of due west at a slightly faster pace now, 265/8 kt. The storm is expected to continue westward for another 36 hours or so as it moves in the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the north is forecast to begin on Friday when a cutoff low forms over the Ohio Valley and the northeastern U.S. This general northward motion should continue through the weekend as another ridge builds to the east of Henri over the northwestern Atlantic. The models continue their westward shift, and the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted in that direction and no longer shows a northeastward motion out to sea. In particular, the westward adjustment at day 5 was a sizable 150 miles, and even with this shift the NHC forecast is still a little to the east of some of the consensus aids. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecast, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track prediction in future forecast cycles.

The storm is currently in an environment of about 15-20 kt of northerly wind shear according to the SHIPS model and analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, which is the reason the vortex is currently titled. The shear should persist for another day or so, and little change in strength seems likely during that time period. However, strengthening is expected on Friday and Saturday as the shear decreases while the storm remains over the Gulf Stream. Some weakening seems likely at days 4 and 5 when the storm is expected to be over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope and only minor changes were made to the previous prediction.