1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of this area on Friday.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 70.5 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the north and north northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be near southern New England on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane on Friday with additional strengthening predicted to occur this weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

Henri is not as well organized as it was yesterday. Microwave images show that the vortex is titled to the south with height due to about 25 kt of north-northeasterly wind shear. The system is still producing a fair amount of deep convection, however, and the cloud pattern resembles a central dense overcast with banding features limited to the south side of the circulation. The Dvorak estimates continue to range from 55 kt to 65 kt, and therefore, the initial intensity is again held at 60 kt. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Henri later today, and the data the aircraft collects will be very helpful in assessing the storm's structure and strength.

The tropical storm is moving just south of due west at 9 kt. Henri is expected to move generally westward through tonight as the storm remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge. On Friday, however, a trough is expected to cut off over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. while a ridge amplifies to the east of Henri over the western Atlantic. A combination of these features should cause Henri to turn northward on Friday and accelerate in that direction over the weekend. By early next week, the ridge is expected to weaken, which should cause Henri to turn more toward the east. The models are in much better agreement than they were yesterday and their solutions are clustering around southern New England on Sunday and Monday. The NHC track forecast is just a tad to the left of the previous one and lies near the typically best-performing models, the various consensus aids. In addition to the Air Force aircraft that flies through the storm, the NOAA Gulfstream IV jet will also be flying around Henri later today to help assess the environmental conditions and gather data for the numerical models. It is hoped that these data will help the models more accurately predict the future track of the storm.

The current north-northeasterly shear over Henri is forecast to continue for about another day, and given the degraded structure of the system it seems unlikely that the storm will strengthen during that time period. However, the shear is expected to decrease on Friday and it will remain quite low through the weekend. Therefore, strengthening to a hurricane is expected during that time period. Once Henri crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream in a few days, steady weakening is predicted. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

It should be noted that as Henri gains latitude and moves near New England, the wind field is expected to expand. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center.