1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the southern coast of New England has been extended eastward to west of Westport, Massachusetts, including Block Island. The Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Massachusetts has been extended eastward to Chatham, including Nantucket. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York
- North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
- Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
- Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
- North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
- Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
- North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point
- New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
- Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
- South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet
- Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
- Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3 5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3 5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3 5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2 4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2 4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1 3 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts Bay...1 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 72.5 West. Henri is moving toward the north northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster northward to north northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or in southern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through tonight. Although some weakening is expected prior to landfall on Sunday, Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of Long Island and southern New England. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

The Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Henri this morning and continue to provide very valuable data. The Air Force aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 82 kt at 700 mb, which easily supports hurricane strength, but the initial intensity is set at 65 kt as a blend of these data and somewhat lower SFMR winds. In addition, aircraft data indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 991 mb. The NOAA tail Doppler radar data indicate that the storm is becoming more vertically aligned and that a more symmetric eyewall appears to be forming. In addition, dropsonde data from the NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft flying around Henri indicate that the 34- and 50-kt wind radii are a little larger than previously estimated in the southeastern quadrant. NOAA buoy 41001 located in the northeastern quadrant of the hurricane has recently reported 18 ft. seas.

Henri is moving north-northeastward, or 020 degrees, at 12 kt. The steering pattern appears fairly well established now with a cut off low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to the east and northeast of Henri. This pattern should cause the storm to accelerate to the north or north-northeast today followed by a slight bend to the left on Sunday. The latest run of the GFS has shifted to the east, but overall the models are focused in on landfall being between central Long Island and Rhode Island on Sunday. However, users are reminded to not focus on the center itself, as impacts will extend well away from the center, especially to the east. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and very near the best-performing models, the consensus aids.

The environment looks favorable for Henri to continue to gain strength through tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence associated with the upper-level trough, and warm SSTs. In fact, the GFS and HWRF models show the minimum pressure dropping by 15 mb or more during that time period. By early Sunday, Henri is predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and that should cause some weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over the northeast United States, rapid weakening is expected. Henri is forecast to become post-tropical in 48-60 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.