1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12 inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Henri at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and continue into Monday. These swells could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri was located by surface observations near latitude 41.7 North, longitude 72.8 West. Henri is moving toward the westnorthwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward the eastnortheast Monday afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the ConnecticutNew York border tonight, then move across northern Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Henri's satellite and radar signatures have continued to erode during the day today owing to moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear and entrainment of drier and more stable air off of the cooler Atlantic waters. The primary rain shield has shifted into the western semicircle, which is typical for tropical cyclones that are in the early stages of undergoing extratropical transition. Doppler radar velocity data from Upton, New York, and Boston, Massachusetts, along with surface observations indicate that Henri's peak winds have continued to decrease, with any tropical-storm-force winds now confined to the offshore waters of Long Island Sound. Additional spin down of the vortex and weakening of the low-level wind field are anticipated due to land interaction and entrainment of additional stable air. As a result of these unfavorable conditions, Henri should weaken to a tropical depression this evening, and become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday afternoon or evening.

Henri is now moving west-northwestward or 290/06 kt. The tropical storm has finally made the much anticipated sharp turn toward the west-northwest around the northeastern periphery of a mid- to upper-level low currently located over southern New Jersey. These two weather systems are forecast to slowly dumbbell in a counter- clockwise motion, with Henri's circulation absorbing the other low by Monday morning, possibly resulting in Henri stalling near the New York-Connecticut border. By early Monday afternoon, a weak mid-tropospheric shortwave currently moving across the Great Lakes region is expected to eject the cyclone or its remnants eastward to east-northeastward across southern New England and into the Gulf of Maine by Monday night, before dissipating near or over Nova Scotia on Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and remains close to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE.

Although Henri's winds will be weakening, the cyclone will still continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two.