1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation will continue through tonight along portions of the coast between Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher.

2. Wind damage will occur near the core of Ida as it continues inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of Ida's center into southwestern Mississippi through early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through Monday across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves farther inland, considerable flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
- Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana
- Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...711 ft Lake Pontchartrain...58 ft Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...47 ft Lake Maurepas...46 ft Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...35 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...13 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...13 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves farther inland over southeastern Louisiana through this evening.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane Warning area over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the MidAtlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast through early Monday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Doppler radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, however, Ida is forecast to remain a hurricane through late tonight and remain a tropical storm until Monday afternoon.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) was recently observed at New Orleans International Airport. A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a gust of 85 mph (137 km/h) was recently reported at Frenier Landing, Louisiana.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station located northeast of Raceland, Louisiana, recently reported a minimum pressure of 945 mb (27.91).

Although Ida has been inland over southeastern Louisiana for several hours, it is still a very well organized hurricane. Doppler radar images indicate that the hurricane continues to have a well-defined eye, though the eyewall has become a bit ragged on the southwest side. Beyond the inner core, rain bands remain well established, especially on the system's east side. Earlier this evening, there were reports of extreme wind gusts over 120 kt along the coast of southeastern Louisiana. Based on Doppler radar velocity data over the past hour or two, the initial intensity is estimated to be 90 kt.

As Ida continues inland, rapid weakening is expected due to a combination of land interaction and an increase in wind shear. However, damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread further inland over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through Monday morning. To account for this, the gust factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. Ida is likely to weaken to a tropical storm by Monday morning and a tropical depression by Monday night. Some slight restrengthening as an extratropical storm is possible when Ida moves over the western Atlantic in 4 days or so. In addition, heavy rains will spread northward and then northeastward along the forecast track.

Ida is expected to turn northward by early Monday as it moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. A faster motion to the northeast is expected by Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the system, with that motion continuing through much of the remainder of the week. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south or right of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models.