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At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 24.8 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Larry is forecast to become a hurricane by late Thursday or Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

Deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C have increased over and to the west of the low-level center since the previous advisory. Subjective satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, while the most recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are T2.8/41 kt from ADT and 37 kt from SATCON. An average of these intensity estimates support increasing the advisory intensity to 40 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Larry. In addition, 0300 UTC and 0700 UTC observations from ship VRNF3, which recently passed through the center of Larry, reported a pressure of 1006.8 mb and winds near 25 kt. These data were the basis for the estimated central pressure of 1003 mb, a pressure value that also supports an intensity of 40 kt.

Larry has turned more westward over the past several hours, and the new motion estimate is 280/17 kt. Larry is expected to move around the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general west motion for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday, and a northwestward motion over the weekend and continuing into early next week. There has been a pronounced westward shift in the track guidance for this cycle, with the greatest shift coming from the GFS model. Over the past 36 hours, the GFS has shifted its track westward by more than 500 nmi, and even the latest shift still keeps the GFS model the easternmost track forecast in the guidance suite. In contrast, the ECMWF and UKMET models, which lie along the westernmost portion of the guidance envelope, have been fairly stable. Owing to the westward shift in the overall guidance envelope, and considering the GFS solution as an outlier model, the new NHC forecast track has also been shifted westward, and lies between the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model to the south, and the tightly packed TVCA simple-consensus model and FSSE corrected-consensus model to the north. Given the poor handling of the ridge to the north of Larry by the GFS, subsequent NHC forecast tracks may have to be shifted farther west.

Given the improved inner-core wind field based on earlier ASCAT wind data and reports from ship VRNF3, along with warm sea-surface temperatures of 28 deg C and light easterly to southeasterly vertical shear of around 5 kt, steady strengthening is expected for the next 24 hours or so. By 36 hours when Larry is expected to be a hurricane and have a well-established and tighter inner-core wind field and possibly an eye, rapid intensification is forecast, with Larry becoming a major hurricane by 72 hour. This in large part due to the massive equatorward upper-level outflow pattern that all of the global and regional models are forecasting, which is the same type of outflow pattern that recently occurred with Hurricane Ida. The new official intensity forecast is above the previous advisory forecast by about 10 kt at all forecast times, and conservatively follows an average of the Decay-SHIPS, COAMPS-TC, FSSE, and ECMWF models. This intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance envelope and is above the other consensus intensity models.

Afternoon satellite imagery indicates that Larry continues to become better organized, with visible imagery hinting at eye formation and a partial SSM/IS overpass suggesting that a 37 GHz convective ring is present around the center. Satellite intensity estimates are now 65 kt from SAB and 55 kt from TAFB, and the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt, which is a 30 kt increase since this time yesterday satisfying the 24-h definition of rapid intensification.

The initial motion is now 275/19 kt. Larry is expected to move around the south and southwest sides of a subtropical ridge during the next five days, with a general westward motion for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and, by 96-120 h, a turn toward the northwest. The spread in the track guidance after 36 h has decreased a little in the latest model runs. However, the guidance envelope has again shifted a little to the west. The new forecast track will also be shifted a little westward, and it lies on the southern edge of the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for additional rapid intensification during at the next 36-48 h, and the intensity forecast now calls for Larry to become a hurricane in less than 12 h and become a major hurricane in about 48 h. Given current trends, this part of the intensity forecast could be conservative. There is lower confidence in the intensity forecast after 48 h. Larry is expected to encounter somewhat increased shear, and around the 72 h point it is expected to encounter some dry air. After 96 h, moderate shear is forecast to continue, but the cyclone is expected to move into a more moist air mass and over increasing sea surface temperatures. On top of these factors, there is the good chance that Larry will have fluctuations in intensity after it becomes a major hurricane due to eyewall replacement cycles. The intensity guidance basically keeps a steady intensity from 60-120 h, and the official forecast follows that trend. However, this part of the intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance, and it is possible Larry could be stronger than forecast during this time.